Euro: do-or-die beween Iceland and Austria

Germany and Poland clinched to places in the round of 16 as well as Spain and Croatia. Spain lost against Croatia and therefore also lost the winning spot in Group C, which means they end up playing Italy in next round.

Today Group E and F are completed. In group E Sweden and Ireland  need to win to survive, whereas Belgium only need avoid a losing by more than three goals. In group F is even easier. Iceland and Portugal need at least draws in their matches, and Austria need to win against Iceland. A pure do-or-die between Austria and Iceland in other words.

Albania and Turkey are currently 4th and 3rd best third-placed and need to rely on results in group E and F. Basically they need to hope for that Portugal lose against Hungary, Ireland do not win against Italy, and Turkey can also be helped by Sweden not winning against Belgium. See details below.

Group A	p	pts	+/-	Chance
France	3	7	4-1	100%
Switzerland	3	5	2-1	100%
Albania	3	3	1-3	10%
Romania	3	1	2-4	0%

Albania are eliminated if

Portugal draw (or win) against Hungary or

Ireland win against Italy

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
France	Northern Ireland (66%)	England (77%)
	Ireland (21%)	Hungary (9.2%)
	Belgium (13%)	Austria (5.4%)
Switzerland	Poland (100%)	Croatia (56%)
		Austria (14%)
		Portugal (11%)
Albania	Germany (100%)	Spain (64%)
		Italy (36%)

Group B	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Wales	3	6	6-3	100%
England	3	5	3-2	100%
Slovakia	3	4	3-3	100%
Russia	3	1	2-6	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Wales	Turkey (66%)	Belgium (45%)
	Northern Ireland (34%)	Portugal (31%)
		Sweden (12%)
England	Hungary (47%)	France (86%)
	Iceland (25%)	Northern Ireland (5.9%)
	Austria (19%)	Belgium (4.2%)
Slovakia	Germany (90%)	Spain (52%)
	Croatia (10%)	Italy (29%)
		Switzerland (9.9%)

Group C	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Germany	3	7	3-0	100%
Poland	3	7	2-0	100%
Northern Ireland	3	3	2-2	100%
Ukraine	3	0	0-5	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Germany	Slovakia (90%)	Spain (64%)
	Albania (10%)	Italy (36%)
Poland	Switzerland (100%)	Croatia (55%)
		Austria (14%)
		Portugal (12%)
Northern Ireland	France (66%)	Portugal (29%)
	Wales (34%)	Belgium (21%)
		England (21%)

Group D	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Croatia	3	7	5-3	100%
Spain	3	6	5-2	100%
Turkey	3	3	2-4	66%
Czechia	3	1	2-5	0%

Turkey clinch knockout berth if

Belgium draw (or win) against Sweden and Italy draw (or win) against Ireland or

Hungary win against Portugal

Turkey are eliminated if

Ireland win against Italy and Portugal draw (or win) against Hungary

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Croatia	Austria (31%)	Switzerland (50%)
	Portugal (19%)	Poland (50%)
	Hungary (16%)
Spain	Italy (100%)	Germany (80%)
		Slovakia (19%)
		Albania (1.1%)
Turkey	Wales (100%)	Belgium (59%)
		Portugal (23%)
		Hungary (12%)

Group E	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Italy	2	6	3-0	100%
Belgium	2	3	3-2	94%
Sweden	2	1	2-3	22%
Ireland	2	1	2-5	26%

Belgium clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Sweden

Belgium are eliminated if

Sweden win against Belgium and Ireland win against Italy or if they lose against Sweden with more than 3 goals

Sweden clinch knockout berth if

they win against Belgium

Sweden are eliminated if

Belgium draw (or win) against Sweden

Ireland clinch knockout berth if

they win against Italy

Ireland are eliminated if

Italy draw (or win) against Ireland

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Italy	Spain (100%)	Germany (80%)
		Slovakia (19%)
		Albania (1.1%)
Belgium	Portugal (45%)	Turkey (50%)
	Hungary (30%)	Wales (31%)
	France (14%)	Northern Ireland (8.3%)
Sweden	Portugal (54%)	Wales (48%)
	Hungary (36%)	Northern Ireland (34%)
	Iceland (8.5%)	Turkey (17%)
Ireland	France (80%)	England (48%)
	Croatia (18%)	Switzerland (17%)
	Portugal (1%)	Poland (17%)

Group F	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Hungary	2	4	3-1	100%
Iceland	2	2	2-2	49%
Portugal	2	2	1-1	82%
Austria	2	1	0-2	51%

Iceland clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Austria

Iceland are eliminated if

they lose against Austria

Portugal clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Hungary

Portugal are eliminated if

they lose against Hungary

Austria clinch knockout berth if

they win against Iceland

Austria are eliminated if

they draw (or lose) against Iceland

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Hungary	England (47%)	France (31%)
	Belgium (28%)	Turkey (21%)
	Croatia (16%)	Wales (15%)
Iceland	England (51%)	France (34%)
	Croatia (31%)	Switzerland (22%)
	Belgium (14%)	Poland (21%)
Portugal	Belgium (52%)	Wales (27%)
	Croatia (23%)	Turkey (25%)
	Sweden (14%)	Northern Ireland (14%)
Austria	Croatia (62%)	Switzerland (36%)
	England (38%)	Poland (36%)
		France (24%)

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	86	58	35	27
Germany	100	80	48	25	18
Spain	100	64	33	16	11
England	100	77	33	16	10
Belgium	94	55	37	24	9.5
Portugal	82	44	29	18	7
Croatia	100	56	31	15	4.1
Turkey	66	46	20	11	3
Italy	100	36	14	4.6	2.6
Switzerland	100	50	23	9.5	2.2
Poland	100	50	23	9.3	2.1
Austria	51	19	8.4	3.2	0.82
Slovakia	100	23	7.6	2.2	0.73
Sweden	22	9.8	5.9	2.7	0.61
Hungary	100	25	8.5	2.7	0.52
Wales	100	38	10	3.3	0.47
Ireland	26	5.7	2.2	0.74	0.22
Northern Ireland	100	22	5	1.3	0.19
Iceland	49	12	3.5	1	0.17
Albania	10	1.1	0.17	0.021	0.0044
Czechia	0	0	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	0
Russia	0	0	0	0	0
Romania	0	0	0	0	0

Expected result of 4th third-placed team

pts	+/-	Chance
3	0	70%
3	-1	67%
3	-2	0%