CL: Match Day 3

Group A is almost dead after three matches with Arsenal and PSG both having more 98% chance.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.5%	3	7	9-1	Arsenal	99.986% if they draw (or win) against Basel; otherwise 95%
98.6%	3	7	7-2	Paris SG	99.94% if they draw (or win) against Basel; otherwise 95%
3%	3	1	1-6	Basel	8% if they win against Arsenal; otherwise 0.1%
0.4%	3	1	2-10	Razgrad	4% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.1%

Besiktas scored a late and very important winner against Napoli, which keeps the group open.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
80%	3	6	8-6	Napoli	93% if they draw (or win) against Besiktas; otherwise 54%
49%	3	5	5-4	Besiktas	85% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 31%
65%	3	4	5-5	Benfica	83% if they draw (or win) against Besiktas; otherwise 29%
6%	3	1	2-5	Dynamo Kyiv	24% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 2%

Barcelona virtually already clinched a spot in last 16. The second spot is likely between Man City and Gladbach, and the key match will be when Man City go to Monchengladbach.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.88%	3	9	13-1	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gladbach; otherwise 98.6%
74%	3	4	7-7	Man City	94% if they draw (or win) against Gladbach; otherwise 39%
25%	3	3	3-6	Gladbach	60% if they win against Man City; otherwise 6%
0.9%	3	1	3-12	Celtic	11% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0.08%

Group D is virtually already decided.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.92%	3	9	3-0	Atletico
98%	3	6	9-2	Bayern	99.6% if they draw (or win) against PSV; otherwise 91%
1%	3	1	3-7	PSV	7% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.1%
0.7%	3	1	2-8	Rostov	3% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.02%

Group E was the most open group beforehand and is still wide open, although Monaco had a late equalizer against Moscow.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
70%	3	5	4-3	Monaco	89% if they win against CSKA Moscow; otherwise 52%
71%	3	4	2-2	Tottenham	90% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 51%
39%	3	3	3-3	Leverkusen	79% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 27%
19%	3	2	3-4	CSKA Moscow	47% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 9%

Group F is virtually decided with Sporting having only 4% chance.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
97%	3	7	10-3	Dortmund	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 82%
99.1%	3	7	9-4	Real Madrid	99.92% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 95%
4%	3	3	4-4	Sporting	22% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0.7%
0.01%	3	0	1-13	Legia

Leicester has almost secured a spot in next round, while Porto and Kobenhavn compete about the second spot. Their match on 22nd of November will likely decide that race.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.7%	3	9	5-0	Leicester	qualified if they win against Brugge; otherwise 96%
39%	3	4	5-2	FC Kobenhavn	81% if they win against Porto; otherwise 15%
61%	3	4	3-3	Porto	97% if they win against FC Kobenhavn; otherwise 37%
2%	3	0	1-9	Brugge	10% if they win against Porto; otherwise 0.07%

Group H looks decided with Juventus and Sevilla winning their matches against Lyon and Zagreb.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.3%	3	7	5-0	Juventus	99.8% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 87%
95%	3	7	2-0	Sevilla	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 87%
6%	3	3	3-2	Lyon	17% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0.9%
0.1%	3	0	0-8	Dinamo Zagreb	1% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0%