CL: Match Day 5

Group E is dead. Monaco has won the group and Leverkusen is runner-up. Even if Leverkusen lose last match and Tottenham win, Tottenham cannot pass Leverkusen, as Leverkusen has a win and a draw against Tottenham. Tottenham need a point in the last match against Moscow to qualify for Europa League.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	11	9-4	Monaco
100%	5	7	5-4	Leverkusen
0%	5	4	3-5	Tottenham
0%	5	3	4-8	CSKA Moscow

Group F is also dead and only questions i whether Dortmund or Real Madrid will win the group. They meet on the last match in Madrid, and our model gives Madrid 76% chance to win the match and thereby also the group.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	13	19-7	Dortmund
100%	5	11	14-8	Real Madrid
0%	5	3	5-7	Sporting
0%	5	1	8-24	Legia

Leicester secured the group win with a victory against Brugge. In Copenhagen, Porto and Kobenhavn played a scoreless match, keeping the second slot in the group wide open. Kobenhavn need to beat Brugge, while Porto do not win against Leicester.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	7-1	Leicester
84%	5	8	4-3	Porto	qualified if Brugge draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn; otherwise 42%
16%	5	6	5-2	FC Kobenhavn	58% if they win against Brugge; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	2-12	Brugge

Juventus secured a last 16 spot with their win against. Sevilla will play Lyon in the last round. As Sevilla won 1-0 at home, Lyon need to win by at least 2 goals to pass Sevilla in the table.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	9-2	Juventus
84%	5	10	7-3	Sevilla	qualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 54%
16%	5	7	5-3	Lyon	46% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	0-13	Dinamo Zagreb

					Winner \ Runner-up Barc Juve Atle Real Arse Napo Pari Benf Dort Baye Besi Sevi Man Glad PSV Rost Dyna Celt Leve Lyon FCK Port Total Leiceste 1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 9% 5% 12% 12% 4% 17% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 15% 3% 100% Monaco 1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 5% 4% 10% 11% 3% 15% 16% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 100% Barcelon 1% 7% 5% 9% 5% 11% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% 15% 2% 2% 13% 92% Juventus 1% 3% 3% 5% 7% 4% 9% 9% 3% 14% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 12% 2% 10% 89% Atletico 1% 6% 4% 8% 4% 9% 3% 15% <1% <1% <1% 12% 2% 2% 10% 81% Real Mad 1% 5% 4% 7% 4% 9% 3% 13% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 11% 2% 1% 10% 76% Arsenal <1% <1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 6% 7% 2% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8% 2% 1% 7% 58% Napoli <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 1% <1% 4% 46% Paris SG <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 4% 4% 1% 5% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 4% 41% Benfica <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 1% <1% 40% Dortmund <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% <1% 3% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 23% Bayern <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 18% Besiktas <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 13% Sevilla <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 10% Man City <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 7% Gladbach <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% PSV <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% Rostov <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% Total 7% 10% 18% 23% 41% 34% 58% 35% 76% 79% 27% 70% 90% 1% 1% <1% 2% <1% 100% 18% 16% 83%