| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| France | 5 | +7 | 13 | 24.6 | 99% | 97.4% |
| -------------------- |
| Sweden | 5 | +7 | 10 | 17.4 | 36.7% | 17.7% |
| ======== |
| Bulgaria | 5 | -2 | 9 | 14.3 | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Netherlands | 5 | +2 | 7 | 17.8 | 49.1% | 35.8% |
| Belarus | 5 | -8 | 2 | 8.0 | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| Luxembourg | 5 | -6 | 1 | 2.6 | - |
Netherlands surprisingly lost against Bulgaria and dropping from 59% to 36%. They are still the favourites to take the second spot behind France, but the gap is decreasing, and the "average taken points" is only 0.4 more for Netherlands than Sweden. Sweden doubled their chances from 9% to 18%.
In June, Sweden hosts France in an important match where France can 99% secure their ticket to Russia if they win and Sweden can bump up 33% if they win.
| Win | Draw | Lose |
|
|
| Lose | Draw | Win | Information (mBit) |
| 34% | 17.4% | 11.0% | Sweden | - | France | 92% | 98% | 99% | 56.6896 |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Switzerland | 5 | +7 | 15 | 25.3 | 99% | 75.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Portugal | 5 | +16 | 12 | 24.3 | 99% | 86.9% |
| ======== |
| Hungary | 5 | +2 | 7 | 16.7 | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Faroe Islands | 5 | -6 | 5 | 8.8 | - |
| Latvia | 5 | -7 | 3 | 9.3 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Andorra | 5 | -12 | 1 | 1.7 | - |
Both Portugal and Switzerland won and nothing really changed in this group.
| Group C | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Germany | 5 | +19 | 15 | 27.7 | 99.99% | 99.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Northern Irela | 5 | +8 | 10 | 17.8 | 50.8% | 13.9% |
| ======== |
| Czechia | 5 | +4 | 8 | 16.4 | 26.0% | 9.6% |
| Azerbaijan | 5 | -5 | 7 | 12.0 | 0.65% | 0.04% |
| Norway | 5 | -4 | 3 | 11.6 | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| San Marino | 5 | -22 | 0 | 0.4 | - |
Norway did not take their last chance, but lost against Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland and Czechia fighting about the playoff spot behind Germany.
| Group D | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Serbia | 5 | +6 | 11 | 19.6 | 72.6% | 52.6% |
| -------------------- |
| Ireland | 5 | +4 | 11 | 20.3 | 78.1% | 61.5% |
| ======== |
| Wales | 5 | +4 | 7 | 16.3 | 28.3% | 18.3% |
| Austria | 5 | +1 | 7 | 15.0 | 12.3% | 6.8% |
| Georgia | 5 | -4 | 2 | 6.1 | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Moldova | 5 | -11 | 1 | 3.9 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Ireland and Wales drew in Dublin in an important match. In June, Wales travel to Serbia for another important match while Ireland host Austria. A lot of this group will be decided on 11 June.
| Win | Draw | Lose |
|
|
| Lose | Draw | Win | Information (mBit) |
| 71% | 50% | 30.8% | Serbia | - | Wales | 5.3% | 15.4% | 37% | 158.778 |
| 74% | 55% | 38% | Ireland | - | Austria | 1.7% | 5.7% | 19.8% | 108.482 |
| Group E | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Poland | 5 | +6 | 13 | 23.4 | 99% | 96.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Montenegro | 5 | +4 | 7 | 12.9 | 9.2% | 2.2% |
| ======== |
| Denmark | 5 | +2 | 7 | 15.8 | 36.2% | 17.5% |
| Romania | 5 | +2 | 6 | 14.1 | 21.7% | 9.1% |
| Armenia | 5 | -4 | 6 | 10.7 | 1.4% | 0.27% |
| Kazakhstan | 5 | -10 | 2 | 6.0 | 0.03% | 0.00% |
Poland most likely grabs the first place. Denmark and Romania are favourites to grab the second spot, with advantage Denmark after a scoreless match in Romania.
| Group F | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| England | 5 | +8 | 13 | 24.6 | 99% | 97.3% |
| -------------------- |
| Slovakia | 5 | +7 | 9 | 17.9 | 55.8% | 27.5% |
| ======== |
| Slovenia | 5 | +1 | 8 | 15.3 | 12.3% | 3.5% |
| Scotland | 5 | -1 | 7 | 15.6 | 17.5% | 7.1% |
| Lithuania | 5 | -4 | 5 | 9.4 | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| Malta | 5 | -11 | 0 | 1.7 | - |
England likely take the first place while Slovakia are favourites to grab a playoff spot.
| Group G | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Spain | 5 | +17 | 13 | 24.8 | 99% | 89.3% |
| -------------------- |
| Italy | 5 | +9 | 13 | 24.5 | 99% | 85.1% |
| ======== |
| Israel | 5 | 0 | 9 | 15.7 | 1.4% | 0.41% |
| Albania | 5 | -4 | 6 | 12.8 | 0.12% | 0.04% |
| Macedonia | 5 | -4 | 3 | 7.6 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Liechtenstein | 5 | -18 | 0 | 1.4 | - |
Giants, Spain and Italy, are fighting about the first spot in this group. Both won comfortably and nothing really changed the last week. Group will be decided in September when Spain and Italy play in Madrid.
| Group H | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Belgium | 5 | +20 | 13 | 24.4 | 96.8% | 92.2% |
| -------------------- |
| Greece | 5 | +7 | 11 | 19.2 | 36.1% | 13.3% |
| ======== |
| Bosnia and Her | 5 | +8 | 10 | 20.3 | 65.3% | 35.4% |
| Cyprus | 5 | -5 | 4 | 8.9 | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Estonia | 5 | -10 | 4 | 10.0 | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Gibraltar | 5 | -20 | 0 | 1.7 | - |
Greece managed to steal a point from Belgium giving them some light. Bosnia and Herzegovina took an easy win against Gibraltar and still favourites to take the second spot behind Belgium. Much of that will be decided in June when Greece travel to Zenica for an important match.
| Group I | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Croatia | 5 | +10 | 13 | 22.2 | 93.1% | 86.4% |
| -------------------- |
| Iceland | 5 | +2 | 10 | 18.1 | 45.2% | 26.1% |
| ======== |
| Ukraine | 5 | +3 | 8 | 15.5 | 18.4% | 9.9% |
| Turkey | 5 | +2 | 8 | 17.0 | 33.8% | 21.7% |
| Finland | 5 | -5 | 1 | 6.3 | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Kosovo | 5 | -12 | 1 | 3.9 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Tight group with Croatia, Iceland, Turkey, and Ukraine fighting about the two spots. Croatia won against Ukraine making them even more favourites to grab the first spot. In June, Croatia travel to Reykjavik for an early group final.
| Win | Draw | Lose | | | | Lose | Draw | Win | Information (mBit) |
| 44% | 21.0% | 12.6% | Iceland | - | Croatia | 73% | 89% | 97% | 117.094 |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment