PL: Scoreless Manchester Derby

Man City and United drew giving the following expected table

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88.7	80-34	93.5	100
Tottenham	82.3	77-28	6.47	99.9
Man City	75.2	73-40	0.002	81.8
Man United	72.3	59-30	0.0002	37.3
Liverpool	73.7	78-46	0	65.8
Arsenal	69.8	74-48	0	15.1
Everton	63.8	66-42	0	0.0737

The table below shows the probabilities for each team to finish top 4. For each team the left column shows probability the team finishes with that many points and the second column the chance (%) the team finish top 4 if it gets that many points. Chelsea, for example, have 100% no matter what and have already qualified for CL. Tottenham have 100% if they get at least 78 points, in other words, four more points. If they lose remaining matches they have a 81% chance to qualify to CL. City and United secure top 4 if they win remaining matches, while that's not true for Liverpool.

Points	Chelsea	Top4	Tottenham	Top4	Liverpool	Top4	Man City	Top4	Man United	Top4	Arsenal	Top 4	Everton	Top 4
93	10.3	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	15.9	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	17	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	9.03	100	2.42	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	18.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	11.3	100	6	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	6.67	100	7.54	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	6.35	100	5.91	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	2.76	100	14.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	1.32	100	12.1	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	0.782	100	10.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	0.24	100	14.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	0.0784	100	9.04	100	-	-	8.52	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	0.0292	100	6.56	100	-	-	-	-	1.82	100	-	-	-	-
78	0.0048	100	5.72	100	10.1	99.7	14.3	99.9	-	-	0.823	98.9	-	-
77	-	-	2.67	99.8	-	-	13.4	99.6	4.84	96.9	-	-	-	-
76	-	-	1.27	99.5	15.5	95.9	9.36	98	8.1	89.8	2.66	90.7	-	-
75	-	-	0.779	94.9	17.2	88.5	17.5	92.2	4.83	77.9	4.01	74.1	-	-
74	-	-	0.19	80.9	8.68	78.8	11.2	83.7	15.6	60.5	3.43	60.6	-	-
73	-	-	-	-	18.6	60.4	8.44	67.3	14.5	39.1	10.2	37	-	-
72	-	-	-	-	11.9	41.1	8.24	45.6	10.3	24.3	9.66	18.1	-	-
71	-	-	-	-	6.42	25.7	4.15	28.5	15.8	10.8	9.86	8.65	-	-
70	-	-	-	-	6.74	11.6	2.47	13.3	10	3.85	14.8	2.62	2.15	3.16
69	-	-	-	-	2.9	4.54	1.6	5.18	5.63	1.22	11.1	0.627	-	-
68	-	-	-	-	1.05	1.6	0.569	1.65	5.17	0.207	9.79	0.134	5.43	0.0939
67	-	-	-	-	0.689	0.392	0.228	0.307	2.15	0.0325	9.72	0.0103	10.1	0.00794