Thursday, April 6, 2017

Premier League

Both Chelsea and Tottenham won Chelsea now have 95% (+2) chance to win the league, while Tottenham has 5% (-0.3). Chelsea need another 16 points (of 24) to be 99% sure to win the title. Tottenham need at least another 19 points (of 24) to keep their chance above 10%.

Arsenal increased their chances for top 4 position (+11) as they were they only team that managed to win. Liverpool have 6 points more than Arsenal but two more played matches. Looking at the average points in simulations
Liverpool still have 3.5 points (-2.5) margin down to Arsenal in expected points, reflecting that Liverpool's schedule looks easier.


Expected Outcome
TeamPointsExpected +/-Champ%Top4%
Chelsea88.179-3294.8100
Tottenham79.775-315.1498.7
Man City73.873-420.065177.3
Liverpool7379-470.028873.7
Arsenal69.477-470.004930.3
Man United68.558-360.002619.4
Everton62.164-4300.54

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