Premier League

Premier League has reached its final stage. The table below shows the average outcome in simulations taking into account teams' strength, which teams they will play, and whether the matches are home or away. The two columns to the right show the predicted chance each team has win the league (Champ%) and qualify for Champions League (Top4%).

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	87	79-32	93.1	100
Tottenham	78.4	74-31	5.69	96.1
Man City	74.7	73-42	0.811	79.7
Liverpool	74.3	80-46	0.345	80.7
Man United	69.4	59-36	0.0352	23.4
Arsenal	68.5	76-48	0.0107	19.6
Everton	61.9	65-44	0	0.53

Table below shows that the probability that a team ends on a certain point and the probability that it wins the league if it gets that many points. For instance, Chelsea secured the championship if they take at least 90 points and if they only take 80 points, they only have 50% chance to win the league.

Points	Chelsea		Tottenham		Liverpool		Man City		Man United		Arsenal		Everton
96	0.77	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	2.49	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	2.98	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	3.54	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	8.19	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	7.47	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	9.51	99.7	0.311	73.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	11.9	99.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	9.95	98.6	1.24	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	10.4	97.3	1.43	41.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	9.46	95	2.07	31.5	-	-	0.301	43.2	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	6.97	90.3	4.85	22.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	5.82	84.2	4.84	15.5	0.897	12.8	1.16	19.9	0.0373	19.8	-	-	-	-
82	4.14	75.2	7.04	9.81	-	-	1.67	8.51	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	2.62	63.6	9.4	5.61	2.8	3.79	1.9	6	0.175	5.78	0.0903	3.99	-	-
80	1.74	50	8.82	3.21	3.29	1.77	5.3	2.21	0.283	2.33	-	-	-	-
79	1.02	36.5	10.4	1.43	3.88	0.808	5.24	0.828	0.425	0.965	0.413	0.872	-	-
78	0.517	22.9	10.5	0.617	8.79	0.265	7.3	0.325	1.3	0.362	0.575	0.348	-	-
77	0.287	13	8.89	0.214	7.84	0.0893	10.3	0.0717	1.57	0.0767	0.88	0.102	-	-
76	0.128	5.78	8.39	0.0608	9.8	0.0296	9.28	0.0162	2.64	0.0227	2.32	0.0259	-	-
75	0.048	2.71	6.81	0.0132	12.4	0.00647	10.7	0.00372	4.44	0.0112	2.52	0	-	-
74	0.0206	1.46	5.04	0.00397	10.1	0	10.8	0	4.92	0	4.14	0	0.0595	0
73	0.0062	0	3.88	0.00258	10.2	0	8.74	0	6.9	0	6.12	0	-	-