PL: Chelsea Champions

Chelsea secured the title with a 1-0 win against West Bromwich on Friday night. Tottenham secured the second spot with a win against Man Utd.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	91.9	81-30	100	100
Tottenham	83.2	76-26	0	100
Liverpool	75.3	77-42	0	89.6
Man City	75.9	76-40	0	89.4
Arsenal	73.2	76-45	0	20.9

What is left to play for is the top4 spot, which gives a ticket to next year's Champions League. Liverpool and Man City are predicted a 90% chance while Arsenal have roughly 20%. The table below shows the probability each team has on a top4 position given that they take X points. Liverpool, for example, secure the CL ticket with a win in the last match; with a draw (15%) they have 64%, and if the lose (10%) they have 53%. Man City only need (at least) 4 points (58.9%) to secure CL, and if they take three points (24.8%), they still have 41% chance. Arsenal need to win their last two matches (40.9%) and then hope that Liverpool or Man City choke (44.7%).

Points	Liverpool	Chance	Man City	Chance	Arsenal	Chance
78	-	-	34.1	100	-	-
76	74.2	100	24.8	100	-	-
75	-	-	24.8	88.8	40.9	44.7
74	15.4	64.1	4.33	69.8	-	-
73	10.3	53.1	8.23	55.6	25	9.6
72	-	-	3.86	26.7	22.4	1.25

Prediction of upcoming matches:

Home Team	Home Win	Draw	Away Win	Away Team
Arsenal	73%	16%	11%	Sunderland
Man City	66%	19%	15%	West Brom
Arsenal	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Liverpool	74%	15%	10%	Middlesbrough
Watford	26%	23%	51%	Man City