PL: top four

Arsenal and Man City won their matches and this is the expected outcome.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	92.5	82-32	100	100
Tottenham	83.2	76-26	0	100
Man City	76.7	76-40	0	97.7
Liverpool	75.3	77-42	0	85.5
Arsenal	73.8	75-44	0	16.9

Predictions of last round:

Arsenal	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Liverpool	74%	15%	10%	Middlesbrough
Watford	26%	23%	51%	Man City

Man City finish top 4, if (at least) one of the following occurs:

• they do not lose against Watford (74%) or
• Arsenal do not win against Everton (44%) or
• Liverpool do not win against Middlesbrough (26%) or
• Man City lose with one goal (15%) and Arsenal do not win with four (or more) goals (94%)
• Man City lose with two goals (7%) and Arsenal do not win with three (or more) goals (84%)
• Man City lose with three goals (2%) and Arsenal do not win with two (or more) goals (67%)

Liverpool finish top 4, if one of the following occurs

• they win against Middlesbrough (74%) or
• they  draw (15%) and Arsenal do not win (44%)
• they lose with one goal (7%) and Arsenal do not win (44%)
• they lose with more than two goals (0.7%) and Arsenal lose (22%)
• they lose with two goals (3%), Arsenal draw (22%), and Liverpool score at least as many goals as Arsenal.

Arsenal finish  top 4, if

• they win (56%) and Liverpool do not win (26%) or
• they draw (22%) and Liverpool lose with more than two goals (0.7%) or
• Liverpool lose 2-0 (1.6%), Arsenal draw and score at least two goals (7%) or
• they win (56%) and Man City lose (26%) and Arsenal catch up more than five goal difference (1.7%)

Below is  summary the three team given their final points.

Points	Man City	Chance	Liverpool	Chance	Arsenal	Chance
78	51.5	100	-	-	-	-
76	22.9	100	74.3	100	-	-
75	25.7	91	-	-	55.6	29.8
74	-	-	15.4	44.3	-	-
73	-	-	10.3	41.9	22	1.19