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In Group A, France thrashed Netherlands with 4-0, and have 99% chance to reach Russia. In Sofia, Bulgaria won against Sweden making Bulgaria a contender in Group A, but with a tough schedule with matches against both Netherlands and France their predicted chance is only 0.87%.
Group A
| m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup | |
| France | 7 | +10 | 16 | 23.9 | 99.9% | 99% |
| -------------------- | ||||||
| Sweden | 7 | +7 | 13 | 17.9 | 47.9% | 21.3% |
| ======== | ||||||
| Bulgaria | 7 | -2 | 12 | 15.0 | 3.5% | 0.87% |
| Netherlands | 7 | +3 | 10 | 17.0 | 34.2% | 24.2% |
| Belarus | 7 | -8 | 5 | 7.1 | - | |
| Luxembourg | 7 | -10 | 4 | 4.9 | - |
Most likely France will win the group and Sweden or Netherlands take the playoff spot.
In Group B, Switzerland, Portugal and Hungary all won. Hungary still have a theoretical chance, but it involves that Portugal lose against both Hungary and Switzerland and draw against Andorra. Most likely the group will be decided in October when Switzerland and Portugal play. Portugal will need to win that match to snatch the 1st spot and avoid playoff.
Group B
| m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup | |
| Switzerland | 7 | +12 | 21 | 25.7 | 100% | 75.3% |
| -------------------- | ||||||
| Portugal | 7 | +23 | 18 | 25.0 | 99.99% | 89.5% |
| ======== | ||||||
| Hungary | 7 | +3 | 10 | 14.5 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Faroe Islands | 7 | -12 | 5 | 8.5 | - | |
| Andorra | 7 | -14 | 4 | 4.6 | - | |
| Latvia | 7 | -12 | 3 | 8.4 |
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