World Cup: UAE won against Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia took an early lead in Al Ain against UAE, but Mabkhout equalized immediately and in 2nd half Khalil scored the winner for UAE. It means that Saudi lost three important points in their hunt for a top-two position and direct qualification. It makes the match tomorrow (Thursday) between Japan and Australia extremely important. It also makes the match tomorrow (Thursday) between Japan and Australia even more important. The winner in that game secures qualification.

Matches Left

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
87.9%	23.6%	14.2%	Saudi Arabia	-	Japan	76.4%	100%	100%	366.826
100%	88.0%	84.5%	Japan	-	Australia	80.4%	94.6%	100%	135.641
93.4%	78.3%	58.7%	Australia	-	Thailand	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	61.1813

If Japan win

20 Japan
16 Saudi
16 Australia

Japan have secured qualification. Saudi play already qualified Japan and need as good as result as Australia get against Thailand. They have currently the same goal difference, so if both win Australia need to catch up on the goal difference deficit they got in their loss against Japan. If both draw Saudi secure qualification.

If Japan and Australia draw

+9 18 Japan      
+6 17 Australia
+6 16 Saudi

Japan then secure qualification if they (at least) draw the last match against Saudi. They can also come second if Australia lose against Thailand, or if Australia and Thailand draw while Japan lose with less than three goals.

Saudi secure qualification if they win against Japan, or if they draw and Australia lose against Thailand.

Australia secure qualification if they win against Thailand, or if they draw and Japan take point against Saudi, or if they draw and Japan lose with more than three goals, or if they lose and Japan win against Saudi.

If Australia win

19 Australia
17 Japan
16 Saudi 

Australia have secured qualification. Japan secure qualification if they (at least) draw against Saudi. Saudi need to win againt Japan.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Japan	8	+9	17	20.6	100%	96.0%	93.7%
Saudi Arabia	9	+6	16	17.0	99.9%	51.2%	36.0%
--------------------
Australia	8	+6	16	19.4	99.9%	92.2%	88.1%
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United Arab Em	9	-2	13	14.3	0.15%	0.05%	0.02%
Iraq	8	-3	5	7.7	-
Thailand	8	-16	2	4.0	-