World Cup: Europe

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	9	+35	27	29.9	100%	100%
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Northern Irela	9	+12	19	20.1	98.2%	26.9%
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Czechia	9	+2	12	15.0	-
Norway	9	0	10	11.7	-
Azerbaijan	9	-5	10	10.1	-
San Marino	9	-44	0	0.0	-

Germany clinched qualifications and Northern Ireland had already clinched 2nd spot. With 13 point they have very good chances to end among the top-8 runner-ups and with another point against Norway on Sunday they have clinched playoff.

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	9	+12	22	24.4	100%	97.9%
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Denmark	9	+12	19	20.8	98.2%	46.7%
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Montenegro	9	+10	16	16.4	1.6%	0.31%
Romania	9	+2	12	13.0	-
Armenia	9	-16	6	7.4	-
Kazakhstan	9	-20	2	3.4	-

Poland have clinched at least playoff and need either a point against Montenegro or that Romania steals a point from Denmark to clinch ticket to Russia. Denmark need a point to clinch a place in playoff.

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	9	+14	23	25.4	100%	100%
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Scotland	9	+5	17	18.4	38.2%	15.0%
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Slovakia	9	+7	15	17.8	40.7%	18.9%
Slovenia	9	+5	14	15.4	1.4%	0.35%
Lithuania	9	-12	6	6.4	-
Malta	9	-19	1	1.1	-

England clinched qualification with a late winner against Slovenia. In the last round, on Sunday, Slovenia host Scotland and Slovakia play Malta. If Slovakia beat Malta, which is very likely, Scotland need to win away against Slovenia to advance to playoff. Slovenia need a miracle involving Slovakia dropping points against Malta as well as themselves winning against Scotland.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
0.9%	0.00%	0.00%	Slovenia	-	Scotland	0.00%	1.6%	39.2%

Here are the current chances a runner-up has to qualify for the playoff given points and goal difference (not matches against 6th team should be excluded).

Chance	Point	GD
5%	11	3
10%	12	-1
15%	12	2
20%	12	3
25%	12	4
40%	12	5
60%	13	1
70%	13	2
80%	13	3
90%	13	4
95%	13	6