World Cup: South America

Uruguay clinched qualification with a draw against Venezuela. Paraguay grabbed their last chance and won against Colombia, which also means Colombia's qualification is uncertain. Chile won against Ecuador, 2-1, after Ecuador had equalized with 5 minutes left, but Alexis responded immediately with a winning goal. In Buenos Aires Argentina did not manage to score against Peru, which means Argentina are in trouble and Peru have good chances to steal their spot in Russia.


Group

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	17	+27	38	39.5	100%	100%
Uruguay	17	+10	28	30.5	100%	99.99%
Chile	17	+2	26	27.3	79.4%	78.6%
Colombia	17	+2	26	27.4	71.7%	70.7%
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Peru	17	+1	25	26.3	47.9%	46.1%
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Argentina	17	+1	25	26.9	64.7%	64.3%
Paraguay	17	-5	24	25.8	36.3%	28.9%
Ecuador	17	-1	20	20.9	-
Bolivia	17	-20	14	14.3	-
Venezuela	17	-17	9	9.9	-

Below are the matches in the last round that are of importance. Five countries compete about 2.5 spots where the third spot will play a playoff against New Zealand.

Chile and Colombia clinch qualification with a win in the last match. Peru and Argentina also have qualifications in their own hands and can clinch at least a spot in playoff with a win in last match.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
99%	31.5%	5.8%	Peru	-	Colombia	21.4%	97.8%	100%	825.381
0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Ecuador	-	Argentina	6.4%	36.1%	99%	633.325
54.0%	0.00%	0.00%	Paraguay	-	Venezuela	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	334.04
100%	100%	100%	Brazil	-	Chile	49.0%	99%	100%	310.771

Paraguay need to win against Venezuela in the last match and then need to rely on that either
1) Brazil beat Chile or
2) Ecuador steal a point from Argentina.

If Argentina draw, they need two of the following to happen in order to at least finish 5th:
1) Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela
2) Colombia beat Peru
3) Peru beat Colombia with two goals (or more)
4) Brazil beat Chile with two goals (or more)

If Argentina lose, they need the following to happen:
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Peru lose with more goals than Argentina lose

If Peru draw, they need two of the following to happen in order to at least finish 5th:
1) Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela
2) Argentina fail to win against Ecuador
3) Brazil beat Chile with two goals or more
4) Brazil beat Chile with one goal and Peru score more goal than Chile in the last match

If Peru lose they need the following to happen
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose with at least as many goals as Peru

If Colombia draw, they are virtually at least 5th (need Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela with 7 goals or more)

If Colombia lose, they need two of the following to happen
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose, or if Colombia lose with only one goal that Argentina fail to win
3) Chile lose with more goals against Brazil


If Chile draw against Brazil, they are virtually at least 5th (need Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela with 7 goals or more).

If Chile lose against Brazil, they need two of the following to happen:
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose, or if Chile lose win one goal and Argentina fail to win
3) Colombia beat Peru
4) Peru beat Colombia with more goals than Chile lose with (or if Chile lose with one goal and Peru draw Colombia, it gets into scored goals).