CL: Round of 16

With round of 16 completed and the eight quart-finalists decided, we can notice that no big surprises this year. In August, five teams were predicted a greater than 50% chance to reach quarter-final and four of them did it: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern and Juventus. Atletico failed already in the group stage, and so did Monaco as well (40%). Man United (39%) and Paris SG (39%) were other favourites not making it; in the latter case partly due to a touch draw. Liverpool were predicted 9th highest chance to reach quarter-final (39%), Man City 12th with 35%, Sevilla 13th (35%) and Roma was the biggest surprise, ranked 15th with a 23% chance.


Below are the chance curves for the 16 teams in round of 16. As clear in this figure with half an hour left to play, Man United and Tottenham still had a fair chance to win the championship but were knocked out. Other matches were more less killed earlier than that.

Here are the predicted chances for the remaining eight teams:

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	65%	41%	24%
Real Madrid	65%	41%	24%
Man City	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	53%	26%	12%
Juventus	52%	26%	12%
Liverpool	41%	16%	6%
Roma	39%	14%	5%
Sevilla	28%	7%	2%