Expected Outcome
|
| Team | Points | Expected +/- | Champ% | Top4% |
| Man City | 97.1 | 104-29 | 100 | 100 |
|
| Man United | 81 | 75-31 | 0.0494 | 98.7 |
|
| Tottenham | 76.5 | 75-34 | 0.0003 | 85.9 |
|
| Liverpool | 75.8 | 85-43 | 0.0001 | 82.9 |
|
| Chelsea | 72.1 | 69-35 | 0 | 32.4 |
|
| Arsenal | 62.9 | 70-50 | 0 | 0.0839 |
|
Man United won against Liverpool and now have a predicted chance of 98.7% (+1.4%) to finish top 4. Liverpool slipped down to fourth place with 82.9% (-6.5%). Tottenham gained some chance and now have 85.9% (+6.3%), while Chelsea lost some chance 32.4 (-1.3%) despite a winning.
| Man United 99.6% if they take at least 10 (of 24) more points, otherwise 71% |
| Man United 99.8% if they take at least 11 (of 24) more points, otherwise 81% |
| Man United 99.91% if they take at least 12 (of 24) more points, otherwise 87% |
| Tottenham 95% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 46% |
| Tottenham 97% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 56% |
| Tottenham 98.7% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 65% |
| Liverpool 95% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 46% |
| Liverpool 97% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 56% |
| Liverpool 98.3% if they take at least 16 (of 24) more points, otherwise 63% |
| Chelsea 60% if they take at least 17 (of 24) more points, otherwise 7.8% |
| Chelsea 69% if they take at least 18 (of 24) more points, otherwise 12% |
| Chelsea 77% if they take at least 19 (of 24) more points, otherwise 16% |
| Arsenal 0.98% if they take at least 20 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.003% |
| Arsenal 1.4% if they take at least 21 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.006% |
| Arsenal 2.6% if they take at least 22 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.02% |
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