Premier League

Here are our predictions of Premier League with nine matches left. We have simulated the remaining matches a million times and the table below shows the average outcome, taking into account home advantage and whether teams schedules easier or tougher.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	104-29	100	100
Man United	79.8	75-32	0.027	97.3
Liverpool	76.8	85-42	0.0007	89.2
Tottenham	75.3	73-34	0.0001	79.6
Chelsea	71.6	70-35	0	33.7
Arsenal	62.2	70-51	0	0.118

Chelsea, for example, is expected to take 18.6 points during the remaining nine matches, while Tottenham is expected to take 17.3 points (as they have slightly tougher schedule)

Table below shows some scenarios. For example, if Tottenham take at least 17 points (as expected), they finish within top-4 in 97% of the simulations.

Man United 99.7% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 80%

Man United 99.4% if they take at least 13 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Man United 99.9% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 86%

Liverpool 98.3% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 63%

Liverpool 97% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 54%

Liverpool 99.2% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Tottenham 94% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 45%

Tottenham 97% if they take at least 17 more points (of 27), otherwise 53%

Tottenham 92% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 36%

Chelsea 66% if they take at least 20 more points (of 27), otherwise 11%

Chelsea 74% if they take at least 21 more points (of 27), otherwise 15%

Chelsea 57% if they take at least 19 more points (of 27), otherwise 6.8%

Arsenal 2.6% if they take at least 24 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.015%

Arsenal 1.8% if they take at least 23 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.0072%

Arsenal 4.6% if they take at least 25 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.034%