PL: Tottenham clinched CL spot

Tottenham clinched CL spot. Chelsea are trailing 2 points behind Liverpool and with 20 goals worse goal difference they need to win while Liverpool lose the last match. Our model predicts that Chelsea have 60% chance at winning away against Newcastle, and the probability that Liverpool lose against Brighton at home is 9%, giving Chelsea approximately 5.5% chance.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.9	107-28	100	100
Man United	81.3	71-29	0	100
Tottenham	76.2	71-32	0	100
Liverpool	74.4	82-38	0	94.5
Chelsea	72	64-36	0	5.45

PL: Chelsea defeated Liverpool

Here is the average outcome in our simulations:

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.5	107-27	100	100
Man United	81.3	71-29	0	100
Tottenham	75.6	73-33	0	88.7
Liverpool	74.4	82-38	0	86.9
Chelsea	73.6	66-35	0	24.4

Tottenham clinch CL, if they win both remaining matches.
Tottenham have 99.6% chance, if they take 4 points.
Tottenham have 61% chance, if they take 3 points.
Tottenham have 54% chance, if they take 2 points.
Tottenham have 26% chance, if they take 1 point.
Tottenham have 6% chance, if they lose both matches.

Liverpool have more than 99.99% chance, if they win last match.
Liverpool have more than 53% chance, if they draw last match.
Liverpool have more than 29% chance, if they lose last match.

Chelsea have 41% chance, if they win both matches.
Chelsea have 13% chance, if they take 4 points.
Chelsea have 1.1% chance, if they take 3 points.

CL: Liverpool through to Final

CL: Real Madrid through to Final

With an early goal by Kimmich, Bayern was only a goal from the final, but never got any closer than that.

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	100%	68%
Liverpool	89%	29%
Roma	11%	3%

PL: Tottenham won against Watford

Tottenham have 98% chance to finish top-4 while Liverpools chance is 93%. Liverpool can clinch their CL place with a draw against Chelsea on Sunday. Tottenham need five points to secure a spot in CL.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	100	110-28	100	100
Man United	83.3	73-30	0	100
Tottenham	77.6	75-33	0	98.0
Liverpool	75.4	83-39	0	92.7
Chelsea	72.4	67-37	0	9.26

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 5 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 4 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 79% chance, if they take 3 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 75% chance, if they take 2 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 40% chance, if they take 1 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 25% chance, if they take 0 (of 9) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they draw (or win) against Chelsea

Liverpool have more than 99.8% chance, if they take 3 (of 6) more points

Liverpool have more than 60% chance, if they take 1 (of 6) more points

Liverpool have more than 25% chance, if they take 0 (of 6) more points

Chelsea have more than 25% chance, if they take 9 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 7 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have less than 0.3% chance, if they take 6 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have less than 0.01% chance, if they take 5 (of 9) more points