in silico soccer: May 2018

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

PL: Tottenham clinched CL spot

Tottenham clinched CL spot. Chelsea are trailing 2 points behind Liverpool and with 20 goals worse goal difference they need to win while Liverpool lose the last match. Our model predicts that Chelsea have 60% chance at winning away against Newcastle, and the probability that Liverpool lose against Brighton at home is 9%, giving Chelsea approximately 5.5% chance.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.9	107-28	100	100
Man United	81.3	71-29	0	100
Tottenham	76.2	71-32	0	100
Liverpool	74.4	82-38	0	94.5
Chelsea	72	64-36	0	5.45

Monday, May 7, 2018

PL: Chelsea defeated Liverpool

Here is the average outcome in our simulations:

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.5	107-27	100	100
Man United	81.3	71-29	0	100
Tottenham	75.6	73-33	0	88.7
Liverpool	74.4	82-38	0	86.9
Chelsea	73.6	66-35	0	24.4

Tottenham clinch CL, if they win both remaining matches.
Tottenham have 99.6% chance, if they take 4 points.
Tottenham have 61% chance, if they take 3 points.
Tottenham have 54% chance, if they take 2 points.
Tottenham have 26% chance, if they take 1 point.
Tottenham have 6% chance, if they lose both matches.

Liverpool have more than 99.99% chance, if they win last match.
Liverpool have more than 53% chance, if they draw last match.
Liverpool have more than 29% chance, if they lose last match.

Chelsea have 41% chance, if they win both matches.
Chelsea have 13% chance, if they take 4 points.
Chelsea have 1.1% chance, if they take 3 points.