World Cup: Group B - Match Day 1

Group B	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner
Iran	1	1	0	+1	3	41%	17%
Spain	1	3	3	0	1	82%	48%
Portugal	1	3	3	0	1	74%	34%
Morocco	1	0	1	-1	0	4%	1%

uncertainty: 72%

• Iran clinch Last 16, if they win against Spain
• Iran clinch group win, if they win against Spain and Portugal draw Morocco
• Morocco are out, if they lose against Portugal

Probability that teams advance to last 16 given different results in next matches:

Spa - Ira		Portugal - Morocco
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Spa	99%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	99%	99%	100%	97%	96%	95%	97%	97%	98%
	Por	81%	80%	81%	80%	79%	80%	59%	58%	59%	55%	55%	55%	53%	45%	46%	40%
	Ira	20%	20%	19%	20%	21%	20%	39%	40%	39%	42%	35%	35%	37%	37%	37%	41%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	3%	3%	3%	14%	14%	15%	21%	20%	21%
3-1	Spa	98%	99%	99%	100%	100%	100%	98%	97%	98%	98%	95%	95%	93%	96%	95%	98%
	Por	82%	81%	80%	79%	80%	79%	58%	59%	59%	60%	55%	55%	56%	46%	51%	44%
	Ira	20%	20%	20%	21%	20%	21%	40%	39%	38%	38%	35%	35%	37%	37%	34%	38%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	5%	4%	15%	15%	15%	21%	19%	21%
2-0	Spa	98%	99%	99%	100%	100%	100%	98%	97%	98%	98%	95%	94%	94%	96%	95%	98%
	Por	82%	82%	81%	80%	80%	79%	58%	58%	59%	56%	56%	57%	57%	49%	49%	46%
	Ira	20%	19%	20%	21%	20%	21%	40%	39%	39%	42%	35%	34%	36%	36%	36%	35%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	5%	4%	4%	14%	14%	13%	20%	20%	21%
3-2	Spa	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	99%	97%	97%	97%	96%	92%	92%	92%	94%	95%	96%
	Por	81%	81%	81%	80%	80%	80%	59%	59%	59%	60%	55%	54%	56%	49%	50%	48%
	Ira	22%	21%	22%	21%	21%	21%	41%	41%	41%	40%	42%	42%	39%	37%	37%	35%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	3%	4%	4%	11%	12%	12%	19%	19%	21%
2-1	Spa	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%	97%	97%	97%	97%	92%	92%	91%	94%	93%	95%
	Por	83%	82%	82%	81%	80%	80%	59%	59%	58%	58%	56%	56%	57%	48%	49%	47%
	Ira	20%	20%	21%	21%	22%	21%	41%	41%	41%	40%	40%	40%	38%	39%	39%	35%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	3%	4%	5%	12%	12%	13%	19%	20%	22%
1-0	Spa	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%	97%	97%	97%	92%	92%	91%	92%	94%	93%	96%
	Por	81%	81%	81%	81%	81%	81%	58%	58%	59%	56%	58%	57%	60%	51%	51%	42%
	Ira	22%	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%	42%	41%	39%	43%	38%	39%	36%	37%	34%	36%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	4%	5%	9%	12%	13%	12%	18%	21%	26%
0-0	Spa	75%	74%	74%	73%	75%	75%	79%	79%	77%	78%	75%	73%	74%	74%	76%	76%
	Por	86%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	62%	61%	62%	65%	58%	57%	58%	34%	35%	40%
	Ira	39%	41%	41%	42%	40%	39%	51%	51%	50%	48%	44%	44%	42%	66%	65%	60%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	10%	11%	10%	23%	26%	26%	26%	24%	24%
1-1	Spa	74%	74%	74%	74%	74%	74%	79%	79%	78%	77%	74%	75%	73%	71%	72%	74%
	Por	84%	86%	85%	84%	85%	84%	58%	60%	61%	62%	59%	60%	60%	34%	35%	34%
	Ira	42%	40%	41%	42%	41%	42%	54%	52%	52%	51%	44%	42%	41%	66%	65%	66%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	9%	10%	23%	23%	26%	29%	28%	26%
2-2	Spa	74%	75%	75%	75%	74%	74%	81%	79%	80%	79%	73%	75%	74%	73%	75%	77%
	Por	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%	58%	60%	60%	63%	57%	57%	58%	36%	31%	39%
	Ira	41%	41%	40%	40%	42%	41%	52%	52%	51%	48%	47%	47%	43%	64%	69%	61%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	9%	9%	23%	21%	24%	27%	25%	23%
3-3	Spa	75%	75%	75%	74%	75%	73%	81%	79%	79%	78%	70%	77%	78%	76%	73%	68%
	Por	84%	85%	83%	86%	85%	81%	62%	59%	61%	57%	62%	62%	56%	39%	34%	41%
	Ira	41%	41%	42%	40%	41%	47%	49%	53%	51%	58%	42%	42%	46%	61%	66%	59%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	10%	7%	27%	19%	20%	24%	27%	32%
0-1	Spa	6%	8%	9%	13%	13%	14%	33%	32%	31%	32%	55%	50%	49%	64%	61%	65%
	Por	94%	92%	91%	87%	87%	86%	63%	63%	65%	64%	27%	30%	33%	12%	11%	5%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	5%	4%	5%	18%	20%	18%	24%	27%	30%
1-2	Spa	7%	11%	10%	13%	14%	16%	35%	33%	32%	32%	61%	56%	53%	63%	62%	70%
	Por	93%	89%	90%	87%	86%	84%	60%	62%	63%	65%	22%	27%	34%	13%	13%	7%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	5%	3%	17%	17%	13%	24%	25%	22%
2-3	Spa	7%	12%	12%	12%	15%	14%	33%	33%	37%	32%	61%	57%	55%	66%	73%	70%
	Por	93%	88%	88%	88%	85%	86%	62%	62%	58%	65%	22%	23%	29%	9%	11%	5%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	5%	3%	17%	19%	16%	25%	16%	25%
0-2	Spa	5%	6%	7%	8%	10%	13%	30%	31%	31%	31%	46%	49%	42%	58%	53%	70%
	Por	95%	94%	93%	92%	90%	87%	64%	63%	64%	63%	36%	36%	43%	17%	26%	9%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	6%	5%	5%	17%	15%	15%	24%	22%	22%
1-3	Spa	4%	7%	9%	11%	11%	13%	29%	33%	32%	41%	48%	45%	43%	64%	55%	72%
	Por	96%	93%	91%	89%	89%	87%	65%	62%	63%	50%	34%	36%	41%	16%	18%	6%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	5%	9%	18%	18%	17%	20%	26%	22%
0-3	Spa	3%	5%	5%	7%	7%	6%	28%	32%	30%	29%	43%	38%	31%	44%	48%	68%
	Por	97%	95%	95%	93%	93%	94%	66%	63%	62%	65%	40%	41%	54%	29%	27%	16%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	8%	6%	18%	21%	16%	27%	25%	16%

Probability that teams win group given different results in next matches:

Spa - Ira		Portugal - Morocco
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Spa	58%	65%	69%	70%	72%	74%	86%	86%	87%	87%	88%	86%	87%	85%	86%	88%
	Por	36%	30%	26%	24%	22%	21%	8%	8%	8%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	6%	5%	5%	6%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	3%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	10%	10%	11%	10%	9%
3-1	Spa	48%	57%	61%	66%	69%	70%	85%	84%	83%	82%	87%	86%	85%	86%	87%	88%
	Por	47%	37%	33%	29%	26%	24%	9%	10%	11%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	5%	6%	6%	6%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	6%	3%	4%	4%	3%	3%	4%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	11%	10%	11%	9%
2-0	Spa	46%	53%	58%	65%	65%	70%	83%	83%	82%	81%	86%	87%	88%	87%	87%	87%
	Por	49%	42%	37%	31%	29%	25%	11%	11%	12%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	5%	6%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	2%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	9%	10%	10%	10%
3-2	Spa	42%	49%	50%	58%	60%	65%	82%	83%	82%	83%	86%	84%	86%	86%	89%	87%
	Por	52%	46%	44%	38%	35%	29%	11%	12%	12%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	6%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	4%	5%	6%	4%	5%	3%	3%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	10%	10%	10%	8%	10%
2-1	Spa	39%	45%	48%	53%	58%	62%	82%	81%	80%	79%	85%	87%	87%	88%	86%	86%
	Por	56%	49%	46%	42%	36%	33%	12%	13%	14%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	5%	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	6%	6%	6%	5%	6%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	9%	8%	10%	11%
1-0	Spa	39%	43%	46%	51%	54%	59%	81%	80%	79%	78%	86%	86%	88%	87%	86%	86%
	Por	56%	51%	49%	44%	41%	35%	13%	14%	15%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	9%	10%	9%	9%	10%	12%
0-0	Spa	5%	8%	9%	11%	12%	13%	42%	36%	35%	35%	59%	58%	57%	61%	60%	61%
	Por	76%	72%	70%	68%	68%	67%	35%	37%	40%	42%	9%	9%	9%	3%	3%	< 1%
	Ira	19%	20%	21%	21%	20%	20%	23%	27%	26%	23%	24%	25%	25%	22%	24%	22%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	9%	14%	13%	17%
1-1	Spa	6%	9%	10%	12%	13%	14%	44%	42%	37%	37%	59%	59%	58%	55%	59%	60%
	Por	73%	72%	70%	67%	67%	65%	29%	33%	37%	39%	9%	9%	10%	3%	3%	< 1%
	Ira	21%	20%	20%	21%	21%	21%	27%	25%	25%	24%	23%	24%	22%	26%	23%	23%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	8%	9%	16%	15%	17%
2-2	Spa	6%	10%	11%	14%	14%	15%	48%	45%	43%	38%	57%	59%	60%	58%	59%	63%
	Por	73%	70%	70%	66%	66%	65%	27%	29%	31%	39%	8%	8%	10%	3%	3%	< 1%
	Ira	21%	20%	19%	20%	20%	20%	25%	26%	26%	24%	25%	25%	24%	24%	24%	21%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	8%	6%	15%	13%	16%
3-3	Spa	8%	12%	9%	18%	15%	16%	42%	42%	42%	41%	55%	64%	65%	63%	56%	54%
	Por	71%	67%	69%	64%	64%	61%	33%	30%	32%	32%	9%	9%	7%	2%	4%	< 1%
	Ira	21%	21%	21%	18%	20%	22%	25%	27%	26%	28%	22%	20%	18%	20%	25%	28%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	7%	10%	16%	15%	18%
0-1	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	59%	58%	59%	59%	58%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	41%	42%	41%	41%	42%	42%	100%	100%	100%	100%	94%	94%	94%	94%	92%	92%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	6%	6%	6%	8%	8%
1-2	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	59%	59%	60%	58%	60%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	41%	41%	40%	42%	40%	43%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	95%	95%	95%	94%	97%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	5%	5%	6%	3%
2-3	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	60%	58%	57%	59%	58%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	40%	42%	43%	41%	42%	42%	100%	100%	100%	100%	96%	95%	95%	93%	96%	89%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	5%	5%	7%	4%	11%
0-2	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	56%	59%	58%	56%	61%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	44%	41%	42%	44%	39%	43%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	98%	93%	95%	93%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	3%	2%	7%	5%	7%
1-3	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	59%	56%	58%	58%	58%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	41%	44%	42%	42%	42%	42%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	97%	98%	94%	97%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	3%	3%	2%	6%	3%
0-3	Spa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Por	63%	57%	61%	61%	58%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ira	37%	43%	39%	39%	42%	43%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	98%	100%	97%	99%	95%
	Mor	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2%	< 1%	3%	1%	5%

Country	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champions
Brazil	93%	69%	53%	38%	25%
Germany	90%	62%	45%	30%	18%
Spain	82%	62%	40%	23%	12%
Argentina	82%	49%	27%	13%	6%
Portugal	74%	50%	29%	14%	6%
France	76%	48%	27%	13%	6%
England	81%	51%	21%	10%	4%
Belgium	80%	49%	20%	10%	4%
Colombia	79%	45%	19%	9%	4%
Uruguay	93%	39%	18%	7%	3%
Peru	60%	32%	15%	6%	2%
Switzerland	55%	22%	11%	5%	2%
Croatia	56%	25%	10%	3%	1%
Mexico	50%	18%	8%	3%	1%
Poland	58%	25%	8%	3%	< 1%
Denmark	44%	20%	8%	3%	< 1%
Russia	87%	26%	9%	3%	< 1%
Iran	41%	19%	7%	2%	< 1%
Sweden	35%	10%	4%	1%	< 1%
Iceland	40%	14%	5%	1%	< 1%
Serbia	28%	8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Senegal	37%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Costa Rica	24%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
South Korea	25%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Australia	19%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Japan	26%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Nigeria	22%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Panama	21%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tunisia	18%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Morocco	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Egypt	15%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saudi Arabia	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	World Champions
Uruguay (55%) Russia (43%)	-	-	-	-
-	Portugal (26%) Spain (25%) Uruguay (24%) Russia (14%)	-	-	-
Portugal (39%) Spain (34%) Iran (24%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	France (18%) Spain (17%) Portugal (15%) Uruguay (11%) Argentina (8%)	-	-
France (48%) Peru (29%) Denmark (18%)	-	-	-	-
-	France (31%) Peru (16%) Argentina (15%) Croatia (14%)	-	-	-
Croatia (33%) Argentina (26%) Iceland (26%) Nigeria (16%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	Brazil (32%) Spain (9%) France (8%) Portugal (7%)	-
Brazil (75%) Switzerland (15%)	-	-	-	-
-	Brazil (58%) Germany (11%) Mexico (10%)	-	-	-
Mexico (35%) Sweden (26%) Germany (20%) South Korea (19%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Brazil (44%) England (12%) Belgium (11%)	-	-
England (46%) Belgium (44%)	-	-	-	-
-	England (30%) Belgium (28%) Colombia (14%) Poland (13%)	-	-	-
Poland (32%) Colombia (27%) Senegal (24%) Japan (18%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	Brazil (25%) Germany (18%) Spain (12%) Argentina (6%)
Spain (48%) Portugal (34%) Iran (17%)	-	-	-	-
-	Spain (36%) Portugal (24%) Uruguay (15%) Russia (13%)	-	-	-
Russia (44%) Uruguay (38%) Egypt (14%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Spain (24%) Argentina (19%) Portugal (14%) France (9%)	-	-
Argentina (56%) Croatia (23%) Iceland (14%)	-	-	-	-
-	Argentina (35%) France (17%) Peru (16%) Denmark (11%)	-	-	-
Peru (32%) France (28%) Denmark (27%) Australia (13%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	Germany (25%) Spain (14%) Argentina (10%) Portugal (7%)	-
Germany (70%) Mexico (15%)	-	-	-	-
-	Germany (51%) Switzerland (14%) Brazil (11%)	-	-	-
Switzerland (40%) Serbia (23%) Costa Rica (19%) Brazil (18%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Germany (37%) Colombia (13%) England (9%) Belgium (9%)	-	-
Colombia (52%) Poland (26%) Senegal (14%)	-	-	-	-
-	Colombia (30%) Belgium (21%) England (21%) Poland (12%)	-	-	-
Belgium (36%) England (35%) Panama (15%)	-	-	-	-