Tuesday, June 12, 2018

World Cup: Predictions of the knock-out stage

Below are the predictions of how likely teams are to reach each level.

Country

 Last 16  Quarter   Semi     Final  Champions
Brazil93%69%53%38%25%
Germany90%62%45%30%18%
Spain84%65%43%24%13%
Portugal73%51%29%14%7%
Argentina82%49%27%13%6%
France76%48%27%13%6%
England81%51%21%10%4%
Belgium80%49%20%9%4%
Colombia79%45%19%9%4%
Uruguay84%36%17%6%2%
Peru60%32%15%6%2%
Switzerland55%22%11%4%2%
Croatia56%25%10%3%1%
Mexico50%18%8%3%1%
Poland58%25%8%3%< 1%
Denmark44%20%8%3%< 1%
Russia66%20%7%2%< 1%
Iran28%14%5%1%< 1%
Iceland40%14%5%1%< 1%
Sweden35%10%4%1%< 1%
Serbia28%8%3%< 1%< 1%
Senegal37%13%3%< 1%< 1%
South Korea25%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Costa Rica24%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Morocco16%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Australia19%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Japan26%7%1%< 1%< 1%
Nigeria22%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Panama21%6%1%< 1%< 1%
Egypt31%5%1%< 1%< 1%
Tunisia18%5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Saudi Arabia20%3%< 1%< 1%< 1%

The Bracket



Below shows the knock-out bracket with the most likely teams mentioned together with the probability (in brackets).



Last 16Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinalWorld Champions
Uruguay (56%)
Russia (29%)
Egypt (10%)
-
-
-
-
-
Portugal (26%)
Uruguay (25%)
Spain (22%)
Russia (10%)
-
-
-
Portugal (39%)
Spain (30%)
Iran (20%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
France (18%)
Portugal (15%)
Spain (15%)
Uruguay (12%)
Argentina (9%)
-
-
France (48%)
Peru (29%)
Denmark (18%)
-
-
-
-
-
France (31%)
Peru (16%)
Argentina (15%)
Croatia (14%)
-
-
-
Croatia (33%)
Argentina (26%)
Iceland (26%)
Nigeria (16%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil (32%)
France (9%)
Spain (8%)
Portugal (7%)
-
Brazil (75%)
Switzerland (15%)
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil (58%)
Germany (11%)
Mexico (10%)
-
-
-
Mexico (35%)
Sweden (26%)
Germany (20%)
South Korea (19%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil (44%)
England (12%)
Belgium (11%)
-
-
England (46%)
Belgium (43%)
-
-
-
-
-
England (30%)
Belgium (27%)
Colombia (14%)
Poland (13%)
-
-
-
Poland (32%)
Colombia (27%)
Senegal (24%)
Japan (18%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil (25%)
Germany (18%)
Spain (13%)
Portugal (7%)
Spain (54%)
Portugal (34%)
-
-
-
-
-
Spain (43%)
Portugal (25%)
Uruguay (10%)
-
-
-
Russia (37%)
Uruguay (27%)
Egypt (21%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Spain (28%)
Argentina (19%)
Portugal (14%)
France (9%)
-
-
Argentina (56%)
Croatia (23%)
Iceland (14%)
-
-
-
-
-
Argentina (34%)
France (17%)
Peru (16%)
Denmark (11%)
-
-
-
Peru (32%)
France (28%)
Denmark (27%)
Australia (13%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany (24%)
Spain (16%)
Argentina (9%)
Portugal (7%)
-
Germany (70%)
Mexico (15%)
-
-
-
-
-
Germany (51%)
Switzerland (14%)
Brazil (11%)
-
-
-
Switzerland (40%)
Serbia (23%)
Costa Rica (19%)
Brazil (18%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Germany (37%)
Colombia (13%)
England (9%)
Belgium (9%)
-
-
Colombia (52%)
Poland (26%)
Senegal (14%)
-
-
-
-
-
Colombia (30%)
Belgium (21%)
England (21%)
Poland (12%)
-
-
-
Belgium (36%)
England (35%)
Panama (15%)
-
-
-
-

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