CL: Match Day 3: Groups E-H

Group E

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	3	7	5-1	Bayern	99.6% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 85%
78%	3	7	5-1	Ajax	98.3% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 61%
24%	3	3	3-5	Benfica	42% if they win against Ajax; otherwise 2%
0.3%	3	0	2-8	AEK	4% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.02%

Ajax with a last-minute decider may turn out very important and now Benfica must win the return match in Lisbon in two weeks time.

Group F

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	3	6	6-3	Man City	99.7% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 93%
70%	3	5	7-6	Lyon	82% if they draw (or win) against Hoffenheim; otherwise 32%
14%	3	2	6-7	Hoffenheim	47% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 4%
18%	3	2	4-7	Shakhtar	33% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 2%

Hoffenheim with a late equalizer against Lyon gives them some hope. Man City won against Shakhtar and are close to have clinched last 16.

Group G

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
95%	3	6	5-2	Real Madrid	99.4% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 80%
78%	3	6	8-3	Roma	95% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 46%
25%	3	4	3-5	CSKA Moskva	56% if they win against Roma; otherwise 8%
2%	3	1	3-9	Viktoria Plzen	8% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 0.2%

Roma won against Moskva and are now favorites with Madrid to advance from this group. Madrid won as expected.

Group H

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.81%	3	9	6-0	Juventus	qualified if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 98.6%
67%	3	4	3-1	Man United	92% if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 31%
31%	3	2	1-3	Valencia	67% if they win against Man United; otherwise 6%
2%	3	1	1-7	Young Boys	15% if they win against Man United; otherwise 0.5%

Juventus won group final against Man United are thereby virtually qualified for last 16. Man United still favorites after Juventus, as Valencia failed to win against Young Boys. The match between Valencia and Man United in Valencia in the last round will likely deciding the group.