CL: Predictions of knockout stage

Here are our predictions of the knockout stage

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	87%	59%	39%	23%
Man City	86%	55%	33%	19%
Juventus	58%	34%	19%	10%
Real Madrid	72%	38%	19%	9%
Liverpool	51%	28%	15%	7%
Bayern	49%	27%	14%	7%
Tottenham	58%	29%	13%	6%
Paris SG	60%	28%	12%	5%
Atletico	42%	22%	11%	5%
Dortmund	42%	18%	7%	3%
Man United	40%	16%	5%	2%
Porto	57%	19%	6%	2%
Roma	43%	12%	3%	<1%
Ajax	28%	9%	2%	<1%
Lyon	13%	4%	<1%	<1%
Schalke	14%	3%	<1%	<1%

CL: Match Day 6: Group E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	15-5	Bayern
100%	6	12	11-5	Ajax
0%	6	7	6-11	Benfica
0%	6	0	2-13	AEK

Bayern managed to draw Ajax after both teams scoring twice last 10 minutes.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	13	16-6	Man City
100%	6	8	12-11	Lyon
0%	6	6	8-16	Shakhtar
0%	6	3	11-14	Hoffenheim

Lyon needed a draw in Kiev (50%) to advance. With a goal by Shakhtar in 22nd minute that looked problematic and Shakhtar had 75% chance, which crashed down to 35% when Lyon equalised in 65th.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	12-5	Real Madrid
100%	6	9	11-8	Roma
0%	6	7	7-16	Viktoria Plzen
0%	6	7	8-9	CSKA Moskva

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	9-4	Juventus
100%	6	10	7-4	Man United
0%	6	8	6-6	Valencia
0%	6	4	4-12	Young Boys

Both top teams lost and Juve could thereby keep the first spot.

Probability for different match-ups in next round. You can't play a team from your own league or from the same group, which means for example for Man City there are only four alternatives left.

Winner \ Runner-up	Tott	Lyon	Live	Ajax	Man	Roma	Atle	Scha	Total
Dortmund	17%	17%	17%	13%	17%	15%			100%
Porto	14%	14%	14%	11%	14%	13%	16%		100%
Paris SG	16%			13%	16%	15%	18%	18%	100%
Barcelona		17%	17%	13%	17%	16%		18%	100%
Real Madrid	17%	17%	17%	13%	17%			17%	100%
Bayern	16%	16%	16%		16%	15%	17%		100%
Man City				20%		23%	28%	27%	100%
Juventus	16%	16%	16%	13%			18%	18%	100%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Match Day 6: Group A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	13	9-2	Dortmund
100%	6	13	9-6	Atletico
0%	6	6	6-5	Brugge
0%	6	1	2-13	Monaco

Group was already decided. Dortmund snatched the first spot.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	14-5	Barcelona
100%	6	8	9-10	Tottenham
0%	6	8	6-7	Inter
0%	6	2	6-13	PSV

Big drama. With an early goal by Barcelona it did not look bright for Tottenham (<20%), but PSV scored a couple of minutes later, which meant Inter needed to score or Tottenham would go through. When Inter equalized in 73rd they bumped thei chances from <40% to >80%. Now Tottenham needed to score at Camp Nou or rely on PSV again, and 12 minutes later they  flipped everything when they responded and equalized.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	11	16-9	Paris SG
100%	6	9	9-7	Liverpool
0%	6	9	7-5	Napoli
0%	6	4	5-16	Red Star

PSG won their match in Belgrade, which meant the match in Liverpool decided who would join them in the last 16. Liverpool needed to win and scored a goal in 35th minute.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	16	15-6	Porto
100%	6	11	6-4	Schalke
0%	6	4	5-8	Galatasaray
0%	6	3	4-12	Lok Moskva

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Juve	Baye	Ajax	Man	Lyon	Tott	Shak	Live	Roma	Scha	Atle	Total
Dortmund	<1%	1%		10%	17%	7%	18%	8%	18%	16%			100%
Barcelona	<1%	1%	3%	10%	16%	7%		7%	17%	16%	18%		100%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	3%	9%	14%		15%	6%		14%	16%	17%	99%
Real Madrid	<1%	1%	3%	10%	16%	7%	17%	7%	17%		17%		100%
Porto	<1%	<1%	3%	9%	13%	6%	14%	6%	14%	13%		16%	99%
Man City		1%	5%	14%						21%	25%	27%	95%
Juventus	<1%		3%	9%		6%	15%	7%	15%		16%	17%	92%
Bayern	<1%	<1%			11%	5%	12%	5%	12%	11%		13%	75%
Ajax	<1%	<1%			3%	1%	3%	1%	3%	3%	3%	3%	24%
Man United			<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%		1%	1%	1%	7%
Lyon		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%
Total	4%	7%	24%	75%	92%	43%	100%	52%	100%	100%	100%	100%