Schalke are clearly underdog against Man City. A draw would be a good result and actually increase their chances unless they score too many goals.
| Chance | Result | Chance | Probability | ||||||
| 58% | Schalke | 2 | - | 0 | Man City | 42% | (3%) | ||
| 49% | Schalke | 3 | - | 1 | Man City | 51% | (2%) | ||
| 39% | Schalke | 1 | - | 0 | Man City | 61% | (5%) | ||
| 30% | Schalke | 2 | - | 1 | Man City | 70% | (6%) | ||
| 25% | Schalke | 3 | - | 2 | Man City | 75% | (2%) | ||
| 21% | Schalke | 0 | - | 0 | Man City | 79% | (4%) | ||
| 16% | Schalke | 1 | - | 1 | Man City | 84% | (10%) | ||
| 11% | Schalke | 2 | - | 2 | Man City | 89% | (6%) | ||
| 9% | Schalke | 3 | - | 3 | Man City | 91% | (1%) | ||
| 7% | Schalke | 0 | - | 1 | Man City | 93% | (9%) | ||
| 5% | Schalke | 1 | - | 2 | Man City | 95% | (10%) | ||
| 3% | Schalke | 2 | - | 3 | Man City | 97% | (4%) | ||
| 2% | Schalke | 0 | - | 2 | Man City | 98% | (9%) | ||
| 1% | Schalke | 1 | - | 3 | Man City | 99% | (7%) | ||
| 1% | Schalke | 2 | - | 4 | Man City | 99% | (2%) | ||
| 0% | Schalke | 0 | - | 3 | Man City | 100% | (6%) | ||
| 0% | Schalke | 1 | - | 4 | Man City | 100% | (3%) | ||
| 0% | Schalke | 0 | - | 4 | Man City | 100% | (3%) | ||
| 0% | Schalke | 1 | - | 5 | Man City | 100% | (1%) | ||
| 0% | Schalke | 0 | - | 5 | Man City | 100% | (1%) | ||
Atletico (42%) - Juventus (58%)
This is tight match between recent finalists. Atletico starts at home and need to win to increase their chances.
| Chance | Result | Chance | Probability | ||||||
| 97% | Atletico | 4 | - | 0 | Juventus | 3% | (1%) | ||
| 91% | Atletico | 3 | - | 0 | Juventus | 9% | (4%) | ||
| 87% | Atletico | 4 | - | 1 | Juventus | 13% | (2%) | ||
| 81% | Atletico | 2 | - | 0 | Juventus | 19% | (7%) | ||
| 73% | Atletico | 3 | - | 1 | Juventus | 27% | (5%) | ||
| 69% | Atletico | 4 | - | 2 | Juventus | 31% | (1%) | ||
| 64% | Atletico | 1 | - | 0 | Juventus | 36% | (8%) | ||
| 54% | Atletico | 2 | - | 1 | Juventus | 46% | (9%) | ||
| 48% | Atletico | 3 | - | 2 | Juventus | 52% | (3%) | ||
| 43% | Atletico | 0 | - | 0 | Juventus | 57% | (5%) | ||
| 35% | Atletico | 1 | - | 1 | Juventus | 65% | (11%) | ||
| 27% | Atletico | 2 | - | 2 | Juventus | 73% | (6%) | ||
| 24% | Atletico | 3 | - | 3 | Juventus | 76% | (2%) | ||
| 20% | Atletico | 0 | - | 1 | Juventus | 80% | (7%) | ||
| 15% | Atletico | 1 | - | 2 | Juventus | 85% | (8%) | ||
| 11% | Atletico | 2 | - | 3 | Juventus | 89% | (3%) | ||
| 7% | Atletico | 0 | - | 2 | Juventus | 93% | (5%) | ||
| 5% | Atletico | 1 | - | 3 | Juventus | 95% | (4%) | ||
| 2% | Atletico | 0 | - | 3 | Juventus | 98% | (2%) | ||
| 1% | Atletico | 1 | - | 4 | Juventus | 99% | (1%) | ||
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