Wednesday, February 20, 2019

CL: Round of 16 - after 1st Leg

Here are the probabilities the for the different teams to reach the different stages (quarterfinals, semifinals, et cetera). After Man City's two late goals, which essentially secured their spot in the quarterfinals, they are now the favourites to win the tournament just before Barcelona.

TeamQFSemiFinalChampion
Man City97%61%37%21%
Barcelona79%53%34%21%
Real Madrid91%47%23%11%
Tottenham95%47%22%10%
Atletico81%41%19%9%
Paris SG93%44%19%8%
Liverpool49%27%14%7%
Bayern51%27%14%7%
Juventus19%11%6%3%
Porto45%14%4%1%
Roma55%14%4%1%
Man United7%3%<1%<1%
Lyon21%5%1%<1%
Dortmund5%2%<1%<1%
Ajax9%3%<1%<1%
Schalke3%<1%<1%<1%

Man City, Tottenham, Paris SG and Real Madrid have more or less
clinched their spots in the quarterfinals, whereas the four other
matches are more open. Juventus are in a deep hole trying to turn
around 2-0 against Atletic. Barcelona are still favourites against
Lyon and Liverpool vs Bayern is very much fifty-fifty.

Below is a figure showing how the chances for the different teams have evolved over the 90 minutes.

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