Match Day 3 and 4 will be played in June. Turkey will play Iceland in a crucial match in Group H. Montenegro will play a key match for them against Czechia in Group A and Ukraine and Serbia play a key match in the three-team group B.
| Group A | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| England (P) | 2 | 6 | 99.86% | 96.1% | 99.70% | 100% |
|
| Bulgaria | 2 | 2 | 28% | < 1% | 17% | 99.52% | 50% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 23% |
| Kosovo (P) | 1 | 1 | 19% | < 1% | 4.8% | 100% | 27% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18% |
| Montenegro | 2 | 1 | 15% | < 1% | 15% | 15% | 29% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 7% |
| Czechia | 1 | 0 | 72% | 3.0% | 64% | 99.86% | 81% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 59% |
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group B | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Ukraine (H) | 2 | 4 | 73% | 27% | 59% | 100% | 87% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 62% |
| Luxembourg | 2 | 3 | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 2% if Macedonia win against Austria; otherwise 0.9% |
| Portugal (H) | 2 | 2 | 91% | 41% | 78% | 100% | 94% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 91% |
| Serbia (P) | 1 | 1 | 77% | 31% | 63% | 100% | 92% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 71% |
| Lithuania | 1 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group C | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Northern Ireland | 2 | 6 | 18% | 1.5% | 10% | 93% | 24% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 15% |
| Germany | 1 | 3 | 98.6% | 73% | 97.2% | >99.99% | 99.2% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 97% |
| Netherlands (P) | 2 | 3 | 96.8% | 25% | 92% | 100% | 98% if Estonia draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 95% |
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Belarus (P) | 2 | 0 | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group D | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Ireland | 2 | 6 | 40% | 9% | 28% | 98.6% | 71% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 36% |
| Switzerland (H) | 2 | 4 | 94% | 46% | 88% | 100% |
|
| Denmark (P) | 1 | 1 | 92% | 45% | 83% | 100% | 96% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 82% |
| Gibraltar | 1 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Georgia (H) | 2 | 0 | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group E | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Wales | 1 | 3 | 74% | 29% | 64% | 99.98% | 85% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 65% |
| Slovakia | 2 | 3 | 55% | 14% | 40% | 99.66% | 60% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 44% |
| Hungary | 2 | 3 | 23% | 4.0% | 16% | 83% | 38% if they win against Wales; otherwise 16% |
| Croatia | 2 | 3 | 91% | 53% | 80% | >99.99% | 94% if they win against Wales; otherwise 84% |
| Azerbaijan | 1 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 0.2% |
| Group F | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Spain (P) | 2 | 6 | 98.5% | 79% | 96.0% | 100% | 99.3% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 97% |
| Sweden (P) | 2 | 4 | 85% | 17% | 75% | 100% | 95% if they win against Spain; otherwise 84% |
| Romania | 2 | 3 | 30% | 3.1% | 21% | 59% | 42% if they win against Norway; otherwise 24% |
| Malta | 2 | 3 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Norway (H) | 2 | 1 | 36% | < 1% | 8% | 100% | 40% if they win against Romania; otherwise 33% |
| Faroe Islands | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group G | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Poland | 2 | 6 | 95% | 78% | 93% | >99.99% | 97% if they win against Israel; otherwise 89% |
| Israel | 2 | 4 | 31% | 6% | 26% | 95.5% | 53% if they win against Poland; otherwise 28% |
| Macedonia (H) | 2 | 4 | 38% | 2.4% | 13% | 100% | 50% if they win against Austria; otherwise 35% |
| Slovenia | 2 | 2 | 12% | 2.1% | 12% | 12% | 33% if they win against Austria; otherwise 9.1% |
| Austria | 2 | 0 | 69% | 12% | 56% | >99.99% | 78% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 59% |
| Latvia | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
| Group H | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| France (P) | 2 | 6 | 99.95% | 96.5% | 99.84% | 100% |
|
| Turkey | 2 | 6 | 71% | 2.9% | 65% | 99.70% | 85% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 55% |
| Albania | 2 | 3 | 2.4% | < 1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 8% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 1% |
| Iceland | 2 | 3 | 46% | < 1% | 33% | 99.83% | 61% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 32% |
| Andorra | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Moldova | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
| Group I | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Belgium (P) | 2 | 6 | 99.88% | 95.2% | 99.65% | 100% |
|
| Russia | 2 | 3 | 80% | 3.6% | 73% | >99.99% | 83% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 70% |
| Kazakhstan | 2 | 3 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1.3% | < 1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 5% if they draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 0.5% |
| Scotland (H) | 2 | 3 | 55% | 1.2% | 26% | 100% | 56% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 48% |
| San Marino (E) | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
| Group J | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Italy | 2 | 6 | 96.7% | 74% | 94% | >99.99% | 98.8% if they win against Greece; otherwise 94% |
| Greece | 2 | 4 | 20% | 3.4% | 20% | 21% | 37% if they win against Italy; otherwise 15% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) | 2 | 4 | 79% | 19% | 66% | 100% | 88% if they win against Finland; otherwise 71% |
| Finland (P) | 2 | 3 | 32% | 2.9% | 21% | 100% | 50% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 25% |
| Armenia | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 1% if they win against Greece; otherwise 0.2% |
| Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
| League A | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| D | Switzerland (H) | 88% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
|
| B | Portugal (H) | 78% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 94% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 91% |
| C | Netherlands (P) | 92% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 98% if Estonia draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 95% |
| A | England (P) | 99.70% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | Belgium (P) | 99.65% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | France (P) | 99.84% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| F | Spain (P) | 96.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 99.3% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 97% |
| J | Italy | 94% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 98.8% if they win against Greece; otherwise 94% |
| E | Croatia | 80% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 94% if they win against Wales; otherwise 84% |
| G | Poland | 93% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 97% if they win against Israel; otherwise 89% |
| C | Germany | 97.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 99.2% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 97% |
| H | Iceland | 33% | 67% | 67% | 54% | 61% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 32% |
| League B | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| J | Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) | 66% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 88% if they win against Finland; otherwise 71% |
| B | Ukraine (H) | 59% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 87% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 62% |
| D | Denmark (P) | 83% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 96% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 82% |
| F | Sweden (P) | 75% | 25% | 25% | 20% | 95% if they win against Spain; otherwise 84% |
| I | Russia | 73% | 27% | 17% | 20% | 83% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 70% |
| G | Austria | 56% | 44% | 28% | 30% | 78% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 59% |
| E | Wales | 64% | 36% | 25% | 21% | 85% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 65% |
| A | Czechia | 64% | 36% | 23% | 17% | 81% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 59% |
| E | Slovakia | 40% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 60% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 44% |
| H | Turkey | 65% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 85% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 55% |
| D | Ireland | 28% | 70% | 51% | 11% | 71% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 36% |
| C | Northern Ireland | 10% | 83% | 60% | 7% | 24% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 15% |
| League C | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| I | Scotland (H) | 26% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 56% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 48% |
| F | Norway (H) | 8% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 40% if they win against Romania; otherwise 33% |
| B | Serbia (P) | 63% | 37% | 37% | 12% | 92% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 71% |
| J | Finland (P) | 21% | 79% | 79% | 16% | 50% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 25% |
| A | Bulgaria | 17% | 83% | 39% | 14% | 50% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 23% |
| G | Israel | 26% | 70% | 31% | 3.9% | 53% if they win against Poland; otherwise 28% |
| E | Hungary | 16% | 66% | 29% | < 1% | 38% if they win against Wales; otherwise 16% |
| F | Romania | 21% | 38% | 16% | < 1% | 42% if they win against Norway; otherwise 24% |
| J | Greece | 20% | 1.5% | 1.5% | < 1% | 37% if they win against Italy; otherwise 15% |
| H | Albania | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 1% |
| A | Montenegro | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 29% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 7% |
| I | Cyprus | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% if they draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 0.5% |
| C | Estonia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| G | Slovenia | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 33% if they win against Austria; otherwise 9.1% |
| B | Lithuania | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| League D | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| D | Georgia (H) | < 1% | 99.27% | 99.27% | 99.27% |
|
| G | Macedonia (H) | 13% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 50% if they win against Austria; otherwise 35% |
| C | Belarus (P) | < 1% | 99.56% | 99.56% | 14% |
|
| A | Kosovo (P) | 4.8% | 95.2% | 95.2% | < 1% | 27% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18% |
| B | Luxembourg | < 1% | 18% | 18% | < 1% | 2% if Macedonia win against Austria; otherwise 0.9% |
| J | Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% if they win against Greece; otherwise 0.2% |
| E | Azerbaijan | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 0.2% |
| H | Andorra | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| D | Gibraltar | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| F | Faroe Islands | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | Kazakhstan | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| F | Malta | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| G | Latvia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| J | Liechtenstein | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | San Marino (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
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