PL: Liverpool with a last-minute winner

Liverpool and Man City have clinched a spot in Champions League next autumn. The title race is tight and Man City are slight favorites.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	92.4	86-24	47.6	100
Man City	92.2	97-27	52.4	100
Tottenham	75.8	74-41	0	72.5
Arsenal	75.2	79-48	0	62.7
Man United	73.6	73-49	0	36.9
Chelsea	72.9	66-42	0	27.9

Tottenham lost away against Liverpool but didn't lose much space. In the simulation they took on average 0.9 points. They have more than 90% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points.

Arsenal have more than 90% chance, if they take 17 (of 24) more points.

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 14 (of 21) more points.

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points.