PL: Arsenal beat Watford

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	94.4	87-23	57.2	100
Man City	93.4	97-27	42.8	100
Tottenham	76.7	74-39	0	83.8
Arsenal	75.7	76-45	0	68.9
Chelsea	73.5	65-40	0	25.9
Man United	72.7	72-48	0	21.5

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
82	4.4	100
80	9.27	100
79	16.3	100
78	6.58	99.4
77	20.1	96.5
76	14.2	92.2
75	8.69	76.5
74	10.2	56.6
73	4.97	37.2
72	2.6	17.1
71	1.83	6.95

The most likely outcome (20%) for Tottenham is a loss against City, three wins and a draw, which would give them 77p and 96.5% to finish top4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
81	6.02	100
79	11.4	99.8
78	12.2	98.6
77	8.4	93.8
76	17.8	86.1
75	12.3	67.3
74	9.4	46.7
73	10.2	27.9
72	5.39	12
71	3.25	4.62
70	2.32	1.35

The most likely outcome (18%) for Arsenal is 76p  via 3 wins a draw and a loss, which would give them 86%.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
78	7.77	89.4
76	13.4	59.8
75	18.9	36.2
74	7.64	24.8
73	20	8.68
72	14	2.88
71	6.33	1

Chelsea have a visit to Old Trafford left. They need at least a 3-win 1-draw finish to have more than 50% chance.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
79	2.88	95.4
77	6.8	79.8
76	9.38	59.7
75	6.18	41.7
74	16.6	20.8
73	13.6	8.96
72	10.4	3.07

United have a difficult match at home against Chelsea. They probably need a at least a draw there .