PL: Liverpool won against Chelsea

Liverpool lead by two points but have one match more played, so if both teams win all remaining matches, City win by one point. City have, however, a tougher schedule with matches (home) against both Spurs and United. In our simulations they therefore finish on average one point behind Liverpool.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	94.4	87-23	56.5	100
Man City	93.4	97-27	43.5	100
Tottenham	76.7	74-39	0	87
Arsenal	74.4	76-46	0	54.8
Chelsea	73.5	65-40	0	32.3
Man United	72.7	72-48	0	25.9

Here are the probabilities that Liverpool finish on different points and the chance that they win the league.

Liverpool

Point	Probability	Chance
97	27.5	91.6
95	25.1	60.9
94	18.9	51.9
93	7.93	34.2
92	11.1	23.4
91	4.99	13
90	2.01	6.97
89	1.62	3.7

so there are a estimatred 27.5% probability that Liverpool win all remaining matches and if they do they have a 91.6% chance to finish first.

Man City

Point	Probability	Chance
98	9	100
96	14.9	72.7
95	15.1	71.8
94	9.53	43.7
93	17.4	30.1
92	11.1	20.2
91	8.01	9.86
90	7.74	4.52
88	1.87	1.07

Here are the similar tables for the four teams fighting about the two remaining CL tickets.


Tottenham

Point	Probability	Chance
82	4.1	100
80	9.01	100
79	16.8	99.9
78	6.73	99.4
77	19.7	97.9
76	14.3	94.6
75	9.29	82.8
74	10.6	65.9
73	4.59	49.9
72	2.37	20.3
71	1.82	12.6

Most likely outcome for Spurs is to finish on 77 points, and that will with 98% certainty suffice for a CL ticket.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
81	2.97	100
79	7.19	99.7
78	7.97	99.2
77	6.87	93.6
76	14.4	85.2
75	10.8	71.2
74	11.6	46.3
73	12	28.4
72	8.46	13.1
71	6.46	6.04
70	5.3	1.7

Most likely outcome for Arsenal is to finish on 76 points which will suffice for a CL ticket with 85% certainty.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.25	93
76	13.2	70.2
75	17.6	47.1
74	7.96	34.5
73	20.6	15.7
72	13.5	6.91
71	6.9	2.61

Most likely outcome for Chelsea is to finish on 75 points and that will give them a 47% chance to reach CL.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
79	2.98	98
77	6.88	85.2
76	8.78	67.4
75	5.86	53.9
74	16.9	29.4
73	13.7	14.5
72	10.5	6.69
71	13.9	2.3

Most likely outcome for United is to finish on 74 points and that will give them a 29% chance to reach CL.