PL: Liverpool and Man City both won

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	75.9	73-38	0	92.1
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	60.8
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	28.6
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	18.4

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.6	84.2
95	25.3	45.2
94	18.9	36.3
93	4.61	19.7
92	6.34	10.6
91	2.38	5.97

Liverpool have three matches left and the most likely outcome (42%) is that they win all matches.

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	15.7	100
96	19.7	58.6
95	19.8	57.7
94	8.66	32.8
93	16.5	14.2
92	9.07	9.58
91	4.36	3.21

Man City have four matches left, including a derby against United. We predict they have 16% chance to win all matches, which would give them the title, and it's more likely that they take 15 (19.8%) or 16 (19.7%) points.

In the race for CL tickets all teams lost points. Tottenham only lost 0.8 points in expected points as their loss versus Man City was not unexpected. Most surprising (-2.3p) was Arsenal loss against Palace, followed by Chelsea's draw against Burnley (-1.4).

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	21.3	100
77	22.6	100
76	18.8	100
75	8.67	95.7
74	14.1	93.2
73	7.01	77.2
72	3.35	47.4
71	2.75	32

Tottenham reach at least 76p in 62.7% of the simulations, which would clinch a spot in CL.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.6	100
76	14.2	99.7
75	15.8	87.7
74	8.56	85.1
73	18.9	59
72	12.5	31.1
71	7.2	19.9
70	7.98	5.14
69	3.68	1.25

Most common outcome for Arsenal is 73p, which would give them 59% to reach CL. 76p would virtually clinch the a CL spot.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	86.2
74	15.6	59.7
73	23.8	30
72	7.12	21.5
71	19.9	7.4
70	14.1	1.41

Most common outcome in simulations for Chelsea is 73p (24%) and would probably not suffice for a CL spot.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.87	85.7
74	12.3	55.1
73	16.7	23.3
72	7.66	13.4
71	20	3.85

Most common outcome for United is only 71p, in other words, two wins, a draw and a loss. This is partly due to the coming derby against City where City a big favorites.