PL: Predictions after week 36

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	96.6	95-23	74.2	100
Liverpool	95.5	88-21	25.8	100
Tottenham	74.1	69-37	0	96.9
Chelsea	71.9	64-40	0	72.5
Arsenal	70.1	73-51	0	25.3
Man United	69.4	68-52	0	5.36

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	52.9	100
96	23.3	51.5
95	16.9	49.6
94	2.39	26.2
93	3.35	8.09
92	1.14	5.52

We predict Man City have 53% chance winning the last two matches and thereby clinching the title. If they lose two or three points they have ca 50% chance.

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	48.6	47.2
95	24	8.12
94	19.5	4.57
93	2.61	1.04

We predict Liverpool have ca 50% to win the last two matches and if they do, they have 47% to win the title.

Teams 3-6 behave like cyclists in aTour de France before the sprint. No one want to take the head wind and rather stay behind.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
76	38.9	100
74	25	100
73	23.2	100
72	3.68	99.8
71	6.5	78
70	2.78	40.7

Tottenham need two more points to virtually clinch top 4.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
74	34.4	100
72	24.8	79.5
71	26.3	62.5
70	3.82	24.7
69	7.37	11.7
68	3.3	2.88

Chelsea clinch top 4 if they win last two matches and finish on 74 points. Even finishing on 71 points is likely sufficient to finish top 4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
72	37.5	59.8
70	24.9	7.02
69	24	4.4

Arsenal need to win two last matches (36%) to have a reasonable chance (59%).

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
71	46.4	11.3

United can reach 71 points if they win both last matches (46%). That will likely not be sufficient as Arsenal have 38% to finish with more points and Chelsea have 59%.