PL: Predictions after week 35

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	95.9	96-24	65.2	100
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	34.8	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	98.2
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	47.1
Arsenal	71.7	74-49	0	42.4
Man United	70	69-53	0	12.4

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	35.8	100
96	25.4	58.5
95	18.9	58.1
94	5.87	33.3
93	8.58	14.2
92	3.6	9.56

Man City win if they win remaining matches (35.8%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.5	64.3
95	25.3	20.1
94	19	14
93	4.6	5.42
92	6.37	1.91

Liverpool have slightly easier schedule with two home matches and predicted chance of 41.5% to win all of them.

The top 4 race has crystallized into a two-horse race between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.7	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.78	99.7
74	11.5	98.2
73	5.34	94.6
72	1.53	70
71	1.25	53.3

Tottenham need another 6 points (73%) to be guaranteed to finish top 4. And even if they only take 3 points and finish on 73 they have >90% chance.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	100
74	15.6	84.4
73	23.9	62.2
72	7.07	43.2
71	19.8	23.6
70	14.1	5.6
69	3.5	2.16

If Chelsea win remaining three matches (10%), they clinch top 4. The key match is against Man Unite din the next round.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
75	16.9	91.8
73	20.2	73.8
72	22.4	36.4
71	7.69	29.1
70	16.6	8.24
69	9.68	1.97

Arsenal have 42% to reach top 4. They need to take 7 more points to have a >50% chance. The most likely outcome is 6 points and finish on 72p, one point behind Chelsea.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
73	21.3	46.2
71	22.1	10.1
70	23.4	1.21

United need to win remaining matches (21.3) to have a fair chance (46%).