Group A
| Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| England (P) | 4 | 12 | 99.98% | 98.4% | 99.95% | 100% |
|
| Czechia | 5 | 9 | 89% | 1.5% | 86% | >99.99% | 92% if Montenegro draw (or win) against Kosovo; otherwise 83% |
| Kosovo (P) | 5 | 8 | 27% | < 1% | 14% | 100% | 34% if they win against Montenegro; otherwise 23% |
| Montenegro | 5 | 2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Bulgaria | 5 | 2 | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.78% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
England have practically clinched qualification. Czechia and Kosovo fighting about the second spot. Czechia favorites due to easier schedule while Kosovo are playing England twice. Kosovo also has a match against neighbours Montenegro.
| Group B | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Ukraine (H) | 5 | 13 | 97.4% | 40% | 96.3% | 100% | 99.7% if they win against Lithuania; otherwise 81% |
| Portugal (H) | 4 | 8 | 98.7% | 60% | 96.5% | 100% | 99.88% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 98% |
| Serbia (P) | 5 | 7 | 39% | < 1% | 7% | 100% | 54% if Lithuania draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 37% |
| Luxembourg | 5 | 4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% |
|
| Lithuania (E) | 5 | 1 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Ukraine and Portugal likely taking the first two spots. Ukraine have Portugal home and Serbia away, otherwise no matches left between top 3 teams.
| Group C | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Germany (P) | 5 | 12 | 99.55% | 45% | 98.8% | 100% | 99.84% if they win against Estonia; otherwise 98.6% |
| Northern Ireland | 5 | 12 | 15% | < 1% | 6% | 99.21% | 33% if they draw (or win) against Netherlands; otherwise 12% |
| Netherlands (P) | 4 | 9 | 98.5% | 55% | 95.1% | 100% | 99.6% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 93% |
| Belarus (P) | 5 | 3 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
|
| Estonia (E) | 5 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Netherlands took 3 important points against Germany. Northern Ireland have two matches against Netherlands and one against Germany left. They probably need at least 5 points in those three matches because otherwise they need to trust that Estonia are stealing points from either Germany or Netherlands.
| Group D | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Ireland | 5 | 11 | 51% | 12% | 41% | 99.94% | 92% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 46% |
| Denmark (P) | 5 | 9 | 86% | 31% | 72% | 100% | 94% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 78% |
| Switzerland (H) | 4 | 8 | 95.3% | 57% | 87% | 100% | 99.2% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 85% |
| Georgia (H) | 5 | 4 | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
|
| Gibraltar (E) | 5 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Switzerland play Denmark (away) and Ireland (home) in October, which obviously will be two key matches. In the last round Ireland are hosting Denmark in a match seems to become a decider.
| Group E | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Croatia (P) | 5 | 10 | 95.6% | 70% | 89% | 100% | 98% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 86% |
| Slovakia | 5 | 9 | 67% | 14% | 56% | 99.98% | 92% if they win against Wales; otherwise 44% |
| Hungary | 5 | 9 | 24% | 3.9% | 17% | 83% | 72% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 21% |
| Wales | 4 | 6 | 55% | 11% | 38% | >99.99% | 72% if they draw (or win) against Slovakia; otherwise 36% |
| Azerbaijan (x) | 5 | 1 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
Slovakia will host Wales in October for a crucial match.
| Group F | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Spain (P) | 6 | 18 | >99.99% | 99.08% | 99.97% | 100% |
|
| Sweden (P) | 6 | 11 | 83% | < 1% | 72% | 100% | 94% if they win against Spain; otherwise 77% |
| Romania | 6 | 10 | 28% | < 1% | 21% | 52% | 37% if they win against Norway; otherwise 17% |
| Norway (H) | 6 | 9 | 29% | < 1% | 7% | 100% | 43% if they win against Romania; otherwise 25% |
| Malta (E) | 6 | 3 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Faroe Islands (E) | 6 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Two interesting matches in October when Spain travel to Scandinavia to Sweden and Norway. Norway also play Romania (away), which probably is a match they need to win.
| Group G | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Poland | 6 | 13 | 97.8% | 84% | 96.5% | >99.99% | 99.1% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 94% |
| Slovenia | 6 | 12 | 49% | 12% | 49% | 49% | 77% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 20% |
| Israel | 6 | 8 | 12% | < 1% | 5.0% | 95.1% | 31% if they win against Austria; otherwise 9.4% |
| Austria (P) | 6 | 8 | 63% | 3.7% | 47% | 100% | 83% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 44% |
| Macedonia (H) | 6 | 8 | 31% | < 1% | 2.7% | 100% | 38% if they win against Poland; otherwise 30% |
| Latvia (E) | 6 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
In October Slovenia host Austria in a crucial match.
| Group H | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Turkey | 6 | 15 | 82% | 11% | 78% | >99.99% | 86% if they win against Albania; otherwise 73% |
| France (P) | 6 | 15 | 99.85% | 88% | 99.35% | 100% | 99.97% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 98.8% |
| Iceland | 6 | 12 | 43% | < 1% | 22% | >99.99% | 58% if they win against France; otherwise 41% |
| Albania | 6 | 9 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.02% |
| Moldova (E) | 6 | 3 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Andorra (E) | 6 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
France and Turkey probably take the two direct slots in this group.
| Group I | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Belgium (Q) | 6 | 18 | 100% | 97.1% | 100% | 100% |
|
| Russia (P) | 6 | 15 | 99.44% | 2.9% | 99.22% | 100% | 99.999% if they draw (or win) against Scotland; otherwise 98% |
| Kazakhstan | 6 | 7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Cyprus | 6 | 7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| Scotland (H) | 6 | 6 | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
|
| San Marino (E) | 6 | 0 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Group is very close to be decided.
| Group J | Pld | Pts | Qual | 1st | Top 2 | Atleast Playoff | Comment |
| Italy (H) | 6 | 18 | >99.99% | 99.90% | >99.99% | 100% |
|
| Finland (P) | 6 | 12 | 84% | < 1% | 83% | 100% | 92% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 67% |
| Armenia | 6 | 9 | 3.7% | < 1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 23% if they win against Finland; otherwise 0.5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) | 6 | 7 | 47% | < 1% | 13% | 100% | 53% if they win against Greece; otherwise 41% |
| Greece | 6 | 5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% if they win against Italy; otherwise 0.1% |
| Liechtenstein (E) | 6 | 1 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated
Finland in a good position to grab the second slot. They play both Bosnia and Herzegovina (away) as well as Armenia (home) in October. Both Armenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina play Italy in November.
| League A | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| D | Switzerland (H) | 87% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 99.2% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 85% |
| B | Portugal (H) | 96.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 99.88% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 98% |
| C | Netherlands (P) | 95.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 99.6% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 93% |
| A | England (P) | 99.95% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | Belgium (Q) | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | France (P) | 99.35% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.97% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 98.8% |
| F | Spain (P) | 99.97% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| J | Italy (H) | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| E | Croatia (P) | 89% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 98% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 86% |
| G | Poland | 96.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
|
| C | Germany (P) | 98.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 99.84% if they win against Estonia; otherwise 98.6% |
| H | Iceland | 22% | 78% | 78% | 74% | 58% if they win against France; otherwise 41% |
| League B | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| J | Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) | 13% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
|
| B | Ukraine (H) | 96.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 99.7% if they win against Lithuania; otherwise 81% |
| D | Denmark (P) | 72% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 94% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 78% |
| F | Sweden (P) | 72% | 28% | 28% | 20% | 94% if they win against Spain; otherwise 77% |
| I | Russia (P) | 99.22% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.999% if they draw (or win) against Scotland; otherwise 98% |
| G | Austria (P) | 47% | 53% | 35% | 38% |
|
| E | Wales | 38% | 62% | 45% | 34% | 72% if they draw (or win) against Slovakia; otherwise 36% |
| A | Czechia | 86% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 92% if Montenegro draw (or win) against Kosovo; otherwise 83% |
| E | Slovakia | 56% | 44% | 31% | 19% | 92% if they win against Wales; otherwise 44% |
| H | Turkey | 78% | 22% | 14% | 9% | 86% if they win against Albania; otherwise 73% |
| D | Ireland | 41% | 59% | 44% | 11% | 92% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 46% |
| C | Northern Ireland | 6% | 93% | 68% | 12% | 33% if they draw (or win) against Netherlands; otherwise 12% |
| League C | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| I | Scotland (H) | < 1% | 99.23% | 99.23% | 99.23% |
|
| F | Norway (H) | 7% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 43% if they win against Romania; otherwise 25% |
| B | Serbia (P) | 7% | 93% | 93% | 7% | 54% if Lithuania draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 37% |
| J | Finland (P) | 83% | 17% | 17% | < 1% |
|
| A | Bulgaria | < 1% | 99.67% | 37% | 18% |
|
| G | Israel | 5.0% | 90% | 31% | 4.6% |
|
| E | Hungary | 17% | 66% | 20% | < 1% | 72% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 21% |
| F | Romania | 21% | 32% | 9% | < 1% | 37% if they win against Norway; otherwise 17% |
| J | Greece | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | Albania | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.02% |
| A | Montenegro | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | Cyprus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| C | Estonia (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| G | Slovenia | 49% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| B | Lithuania (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| League D | Top 2 | Playoff | Own League | Home Advantage | Comment |
|
| D | Georgia (H) | < 1% | 99.90% | 99.90% | 99.90% |
|
| G | Macedonia (H) | 2.7% | 97.3% | 97.3% | 97.3% |
|
| C | Belarus (P) | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 2.8% |
|
| A | Kosovo (P) | 14% | 86% | 86% | < 1% | 34% if they win against Montenegro; otherwise 23% |
| B | Luxembourg | < 1% | 17% | 17% | < 1% |
|
| J | Armenia | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| E | Azerbaijan (x) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | Andorra (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| H | Moldova (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| D | Gibraltar (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| F | Faroe Islands (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | Kazakhstan | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| F | Malta (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| G | Latvia (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| J | Liechtenstein (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
| I | San Marino (E) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
|
(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
(E) Eliminated
Looks like all League A countries finish top 2 except Iceland, which means that three League B countries will fill the slots in League playoff. May of the League B countries also have good chances to clinch a top 2 slot, but more open. Of League C countries only Finland are likely to clinch top 2, which would mean Scotland, Norway, Serbia and Bulgaria play in the playoff. None of the League D countries are likely to clinch a direct spot, so the playoff will likely be played by Nation League winners: Georgia, Macedonia, Belarus and Kosovo.
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