CL: Match Day 5

Paris and Madrid have clinched advancement to knockout stage.

Bayern and Tottenham have clinched knockout-stage.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	12-3	Man City
71%	5	6	8-10	Shakhtar	96% if they draw (or win) against Atalanta; otherwise 0%
7%	5	5	9-9	Dinamo Zagreb	48% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0%
22%	5	4	5-12	Atalanta	85% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%

Man City have clinched knockout-stage. In the last round Shakhtar play Atalanta and Zagrab play Man City.

Atalanta take the second spot if they win against Shakhtar and Man City take a point (or more) against Zagreb.

Zagreb take the second spot if they win against Man City and Atalanta take a point (or more) against Shakhtar.

Shakhtar take the second spot if

• they win against Atalanta or
• they draw and Zagreb fail to win against City

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	10-4	Juventus
91%	5	7	6-5	Atletico	qualified if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 62%
9%	5	6	5-7	Leverkusen	38% if Lok Moskva draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 0%
0%	5	3	4-9	Lok Moskva

Atletico clinch the second spot if they win against Lok Moskva (home) or if Leverkusen do not win against Juventus (home).

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
83%	5	10	11-8	Liverpool	qualified if they draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 15%
97%	5	9	7-4	Napoli	qualified if they draw (or win) against Genk; otherwise 80%
20%	5	7	14-10	Salzburg	qualified if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
0%	5	1	4-14	Genk

Napoli advance to knockout-stage if

• they draw (or win) win against Genk or
• Liverpool draw (or win) against Salzburg or

Liverpool advance to knockout-stage if

• they draw (or win) against Salzburg or
• Genk win against Napoli

 Salzburg advance to knockout-stage if they win against Liverpool

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	6-2	Barcelona
93%	5	7	5-5	Dortmund	qualified if Barcelona draw (or win) against Inter; otherwise 69%
7%	5	5	6-7	Inter	31% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0%
0%	5	3	3-6	Slavia Praha

Inter need to win against Barcelona (home) while Dortmund fail to win against Slavia Praha (home).

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
68%	5	9	6-6	RB Leipzig	qualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 20%
28%	5	7	7-6	Zenit	78% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 0%
40%	5	7	7-6	Lyon	qualified if they win against RB Leipzig; otherwise 0%
64%	5	6	7-9	Benfica	qualified if they win against Zenit; otherwise 0%

In the last match Benfica play Zenit while Lyon play Liepzig.

Leipizig qualify if

• they draw (or win) or
• Benfica draw (or win) against Zenit

Benfica qualify if they win against Zenit

Lyon qualify if they win against Leipzig

Zenit qualify if

• they win against Benfica or
• they draw against Benfica and Lyon do not win against Liepzig

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
83%	5	10	11-5	Ajax	qualified if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 29%
37%	5	8	8-7	Valencia	qualified if they win against Ajax; otherwise 17%
80%	5	8	9-8	Chelsea	qualified if they win against Lille; otherwise 31%
0%	5	1	3-11	Lille

In December, Ajax play Valencia and Chelsea play Lille.

Ajax qualify if

• they draw (or win) against Valencia or
• Chelsea fail to win against Lille

Chelsea qualify if

• they win against Lille or
• if they draw and Ajax win against Valencia

Valencia qualify if

• they win against Ajax or
• they draw and Chelsea do not win or
• Lille win against Chelsea

 Amon the favorites wew notice that Liverpool are in a bit of trouble and so are Chelsea and Ajax.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Man City	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	82%	61%	43%	27%
Liverpool	66%	17%	17%	83%	68%	51%	36%	23%
Barcelona	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	74%	47%	28%	14%
Bayern	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	69%	40%	21%	10%
Tottenham	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	53%	26%	11%	4%
Juventus	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	57%	26%	10%	4%
Atletico	< 1%	91%	9%	91%	41%	20%	9%	4%
Chelsea	16%	64%	20%	80%	39%	17%	7%	2%
Ajax	61%	23%	17%	83%	41%	17%	6%	2%
Real Madrid	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	37%	15%	5%	2%
Paris SG	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Dortmund	< 1%	93%	7%	93%	33%	12%	4%	1%
Napoli	32%	66%	3%	97%	36%	12%	4%	1%
RB Leipzig	60%	8%	32%	68%	29%	10%	3%	< 1%
Benfica	< 1%	64%	< 1%	64%	20%	7%	2%	< 1%
Valencia	23%	13%	63%	37%	16%	5%	2%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	71%	20%	71%	21%	6%	2%	< 1%
Salzburg	3%	17%	80%	20%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Lyon	33%	7%	37%	40%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	22%	4%	22%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	9%	91%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	7%	22%	31%	28%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	< 1%	7%	85%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	7%	76%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	< 1%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 Below is matrix showing likely last-16 matchups.

Winner \ Runner-up	Live	Ajax	RB L	Lyon	Napo	Vale	Chel	Zeni	Salz	Tott	Real	Dort	Atle	Shak	Benf	Atal	Leve	Inte	Dina	Total
Paris SG	2%	2%	1%		9%	1%	10%	2%	2%	16%		14%	13%	8%	7%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	100%
Bayern	3%	3%		1%	11%	2%	12%	3%	2%		17%		16%	10%	9%	3%		1%	1%	100%
Man City		3%	1%	1%	12%	2%		3%	2%		20%	20%	18%		10%		1%	1%		100%
Juventus	2%	3%	1%	1%		2%	12%	2%	2%	19%	16%	16%		9%	8%				<1%	100%
Barcelona	3%	3%	1%	1%	12%		14%	3%	3%	24%				12%	10%	4%	1%		1%	100%
Liverpool		2%	<1%	<1%		1%		2%			12%	13%	12%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	65%
Ajax	1%		<1%	<1%	5%			1%	1%	9%	8%	9%	7%	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	60%
RB Leipzig	1%	1%			6%	1%	7%		1%	11%	9%		9%	5%		2%		<1%	<1%	59%
Lyon	<1%	<1%			3%	<1%	3%		<1%	5%	4%	4%	4%	2%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	33%
Napoli		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	3%	<1%		4%	4%	4%	4%	2%	2%		<1%		<1%	31%
Valencia	<1%		<1%	<1%	3%			<1%	<1%	5%		4%		2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	23%
Chelsea			<1%	<1%	1%			<1%	<1%		2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	15%
Zenit	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	6%
Salzburg		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%
Total	17%	22%	7%	6%	65%	13%	63%	21%	17%	100%	100%	92%	91%	71%	63%	21%	8%	7%	7%