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PSG and Leipzig are favorites after being in trouble n their CL groups. In the EL groups we have key matches in:
In Group J, Antwerp play LASK. Antwerp have 91% if they win and 44% otherwise, whereas LASK have 39% if they lose and 67% if they take a point.
In Group L, Crvena Zvevda play Gent. If Crvena Zvevda win they have 84% while Gent only have 5%, If Gent at least draw, they have 42% while Crvena Zvevda have 39%.
In Group C, Leverkusen are favorites and challengers Nice and Slavia Praha play a key match. If Praha win they have 76% while Nice only have 28%. Otherwise Praha have 34% while Nice have 70%
In Group E Granada are favorites (88%), while challengers PSV and PAOK play a key match. If PAOK win they have 59% and PSV only 44%. Otherwise PSV have 80% and PAOK have 21%.
| Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
| Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Paris SG | 33% | 27% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 8% | |||
| RB Leipzig | 57% | 42% | 29% | 20% | 13% | 7% | |||
| B | Arsenal | 11% | 88% | 99.0% | 70% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 7% |
| J | Tottenham | 30% | 56% | 87% | 60% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| C | Leverkusen | 25% | 65% | 90% | 62% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| Real Madrid | 25% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 6% | |||
| I | Villarreal | 13% | 86% | 99.48% | 67% | 39% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| H | Milan | 21% | 76% | 96.5% | 64% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4.4% |
| G | Leicester | 23% | 75% | 98.0% | 63% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 3.9% |
| A | Roma | 23% | 66% | 89% | 56% | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3.1% |
| Inter | 26% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3.1% | |||
| F | Napoli | 37% | 34% | 71% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3.0% |
| L | Hoffenheim | 7% | 92% | 98.8% | 62% | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2.8% |
| Atalanta | 29% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 2.8% | |||
| Ajax | 56% | 35% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 2.7% | |||
| Salzburg | 57% | 35% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2.5% | |||
| Atletico | 12% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | |||
| D | Benfica | 29% | 69% | 97.9% | 56% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 2.1% |
| Dortmund | 18% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | |||
| E | Granada | 25% | 63% | 88% | 51% | 25% | 11% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| F | Sociedad | 31% | 25% | 56% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Gladbach | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | |||
| Olympiakos | 46% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | |||
| Shakhtar | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | |||
| Porto | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | < 1% | |||
| Chelsea | 10% | 7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | < 1% | |||
| H | Lille | 52% | 21% | 74% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2.2% | < 1% |
| Man United | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | < 1% | |||
| Sevilla | 5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | < 1% | |||
| Liverpool | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Juventus | 6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | < 1% | |||
| Lazio | 22% | 13% | 7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| Man City | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Rennes | 49% | 23% | 10% | 3.7% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| Zenit | 20% | 11% | 6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | < 1% | |||
| K | Dinamo Zagreb | 27% | 34% | 61% | 28% | 11% | 3.9% | 1.3% | < 1% |
| Bayern | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Marseille | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| A | Young Boys | 36% | 11% | 47% | 20% | 8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| E | PSV | 42% | 21% | 64% | 27% | 10% | 3.6% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| F | Alkmaar | 31% | 40% | 71% | 30% | 11% | 3.7% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| Brugge | 39% | 18% | 8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | < 1% | |||
| C | Slavia Praha | 36% | 19% | 55% | 23% | 9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| D | Rangers | 61% | 30% | 91% | 33% | 11% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| J | LASK | 31% | 18% | 49% | 20% | 7% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Nice | 33% | 15% | 48% | 19% | 7% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| G | Braga | 66% | 24% | 90% | 31% | 10% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 61% | 22% | 7% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| A | CFR Cluj | 36% | 21% | 57% | 20% | 7% | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Barcelona | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| E | PAOK | 26% | 13% | 38% | 14% | 4.9% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | Feyenoord | 21% | 14% | 35% | 13% | 4.4% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| H | Celtic | 23% | 2.9% | 26% | 9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | CSKA Moskva | 26% | 18% | 43% | 15% | 4.5% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | Wolfsberg | 27% | 35% | 61% | 20% | 5% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| FC Krasnodar | 36% | 12% | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Lok Moskva | 30% | 10% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| B | Rapid Wien | 22% | < 1% | 23% | 7% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| L | Crvena Zvezda | 54% | 5% | 59% | 15% | 3.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| I | M Tel Aviv | 74% | 14% | 88% | 21% | 4.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| L | Gent | 24% | < 1% | 25% | 7% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| B | Molde | 67% | 11% | 78% | 19% | 4.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| J | Antwerp | 36% | 25% | 61% | 16% | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Midtjylland | 12% | 4.2% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Ferencvaros | 33% | 9% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| G | AEK | 7% | < 1% | 8% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| D | Standard | 8% | < 1% | 9% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Bueyueksehir | 5.0% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| E | Omonia | 7% | 2.5% | 10% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| G | Zorya | 4.0% | < 1% | 4.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| J | Razgrad | 2.4% | < 1% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| H | Sparta Praha | 3.5% | < 1% | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| A | CSKA Sofia | 6% | 1.2% | 7% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| F | Rijeka | 1.5% | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| I | Karabakh Agdam | 7% | < 1% | 7% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| L | Slovan Liberec | 15% | 1.7% | 17% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| I | Sivasspor | 5% | < 1% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| B | Dundalk | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| D | Lech | 1.7% | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Beer-Sheva | 5% | 1.3% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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