CL: After matchweek 3

• Bayern clinch last 16 spot if they take a point against Salzburg
• Barca clinch last 16 spot if they take a point against Dynamo Kyiv and Juve at least draw against Ferencvaros
• Liverpool clinch last 16 spot if they win against Atalanta
• City clinch last 16 spot if they take a point against Olympiakos
• Chelsea and Sevilla clinch last 16 spots if Chelsea at least draw against Rennes and Sevilla win against FC Krasnoda
• Juve clinch last 16 spot if they win against Ferencvaros and Barcelona draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv 

There are three key matches in next match week:

•  PSG - Leipzig. If PSG win they 64% and Leipzig 50%; otherwise PSG have 16% and Leipzig have 96%
• Inter - Real. Inter have 56% if they win and Real have 43%; otherwise Inter have 18% and Real have 82%
• Gladbach - Shakhtar. If Gladbach win they have 85%, otherwise 49%. If  Shakhtar win they have 65%, otherwise they have 22%.
  

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Bayern	< 1%	1.8%	98.1%	99.98%	81%	59%	42%	27%
D	Liverpool	< 1%	2.4%	97.4%	99.80%	75%	50%	31%	17%
C	Man City	< 1%	4.9%	95%	99.81%	71%	45%	26%	14%
G	Barcelona	< 1%	11%	89%	99.95%	70%	40%	22%	11%
A	Atletico	12%	84%	1.8%	86%	45%	23%	11%	4.8%
B	Real Madrid	20%	28%	38%	66%	40%	21%	10%	4.8%
H	Man United	13%	28%	57%	85%	46%	21%	8%	3.4%
E	Chelsea	1.4%	50%	48%	98.6%	48%	21%	8%	3.1%
E	Sevilla	2.4%	46%	52%	97.5%	48%	20%	7%	2.8%
F	Dortmund	5%	24%	70%	94%	45%	18%	7%	2.5%
H	Paris SG	53%	28%	15%	42%	22%	11%	5%	2.3%
G	Juventus	2.1%	87%	11%	97.8%	38%	16%	6%	2.2%
H	RB Leipzig	27%	42%	28%	70%	31%	13%	4.7%	1.8%
D	Atalanta	53%	45%	1.1%	46%	17%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
B	Inter	29%	21%	12%	33%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
B	Gladbach	21%	32%	35%	67%	24%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
D	Ajax	45%	52%	1.5%	54%	16%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
C	Porto	20%	74%	4.7%	78%	21%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
F	Lazio	21%	50%	24%	75%	20%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
B	Shakhtar	30%	19%	15%	34%	12%	3.7%	1.0%	< 1%
A	Salzburg	52%	10%	< 1%	10%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Olympiakos	60%	20%	< 1%	20%	4.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Brugge	54%	20%	5%	26%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Zenit	20%	5%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Rennes	58%	2.7%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Marseille	19%	1.7%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Dynamo Kyiv	72%	1.8%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Lok Moskva	36%	3.6%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	FC Krasnodar	38%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ferencvaros	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bueyueksehir	7%	1.5%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Midtjylland	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%