EL: Predictions after Matchday 3

The following teams have the chance to clinch a spot in the last 32 in the next match.

• Roma clinch last 32 spot if they beat Cluj and Sofia fail to beat Young Boys
• Arsenal clinch last 32 spot if they beat Molde
• Benfica clinch last 32 spot if they beat Rangers Lech fail to beat Standard
• Rangers clinch last 32 spot if they beat Benfica and Lech fail to beat Standard
• Granada clinch last 32 spot if they beat Omonia and PAOK beat PSV
• Leicester clinch last 32 spot if they beat Braga
• Lille clinch last 32 spot if they beat Milan
• Villareal clinch last 32 spot if they take a point against M Tel Aviv and Karabakh Agdam take a point against Sivasspor
• Hoffenheim clinch last 32 spot if they take a point against Slovan Liberec

 Besides that, there are a couple of important matches.

• In Group J, LASK and Antwerp play each other in a match, which might decide who is joining Tottenham to the last 32. If LASK win they have 96%;, otherwise 44%. If Antwerp win they have 88%, otherwise 19%.
• In Group F, Sociedad has 90% chance if they take a point against Alkmaar, otherwise only 32%.
• In Group C, Nice needs to win against Slavia Praha. If they do they have 54%, otherwise 5%.
  

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 32	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
	Paris SG			53%	41%	30%	22%	15%	9%
J	Tottenham	22%	70%	93%	68%	45%	28%	17%	9%
B	Arsenal	3.2%	96.7%	99.80%	74%	47%	29%	16%	9%
G	Leicester	8%	91%	99.44%	70%	42%	23%	12%	6%
C	Leverkusen	19%	76%	95%	65%	38%	21%	11%	6%
H	Milan	53%	41%	95%	62%	37%	21%	11%	5%
I	Villarreal	5%	95%	99.96%	69%	39%	21%	11%	5%
	Real Madrid			20%	16%	12%	9%	6%	4.1%
	Atalanta			53%	36%	23%	13%	7%	3.9%
A	Roma	11%	86%	97.0%	64%	35%	17%	8%	3.7%
L	Hoffenheim	5%	94%	99.91%	64%	34%	16%	7%	3.2%
F	Sociedad	40%	32%	72%	44%	25%	13%	7%	3.1%
E	Granada	15%	82%	96.6%	61%	32%	15%	7%	2.9%
F	Napoli	30%	47%	78%	49%	27%	13%	6%	2.9%
	RB Leipzig			27%	19%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.7%
D	Benfica	45%	53%	98.0%	56%	29%	14%	6%	2.7%
	Inter			29%	20%	13%	8%	4.6%	2.5%
	Salzburg			52%	32%	18%	10%	4.8%	2.3%
	Atletico			12%	9%	7%	4.9%	3.4%	2.1%
	Man United			13%	10%	7%	4.4%	2.8%	1.7%
	Ajax			44%	27%	15%	8%	3.6%	1.7%
H	Lille	38%	58%	95.7%	49%	22%	9%	3.4%	1.3%
	Shakhtar			30%	18%	10%	5%	2.7%	1.3%
	Gladbach			21%	13%	7%	3.8%	1.8%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			60%	30%	14%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
D	Rangers	50%	47%	96.6%	43%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Dortmund			5%	3.8%	2.5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Porto			20%	11%	6%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%
	Lazio			21%	12%	6%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%
J	LASK	53%	22%	75%	30%	11%	3.8%	1.2%	< 1%
	Brugge			54%	24%	10%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%
	Rennes			58%	25%	10%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			72%	28%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
E	PSV	38%	7%	45%	17%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Dinamo Zagreb	28%	41%	69%	28%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Braga	78%	8%	85%	28%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sevilla			2.4%	1.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Zenit			20%	9%	3.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Juventus			2.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille			19%	9%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Slavia Praha	49%	20%	68%	23%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Chelsea			1.4%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Young Boys	47%	8%	55%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Alkmaar	30%	21%	50%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Nice	26%	4.0%	30%	11%	3.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
E	PAOK	44%	12%	56%	17%	4.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Feyenoord	25%	20%	46%	15%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Liverpool			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Man City			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	CSKA Moskva	21%	12%	33%	11%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	M Tel Aviv	86%	5%	91%	22%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CFR Cluj	38%	6%	44%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Rapid Wien	29%	< 1%	30%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Crvena Zvezda	81%	5%	86%	20%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Wolfsberg	26%	26%	52%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			36%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Molde	68%	2.7%	70%	15%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Antwerp	25%	8%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Krasnodar			39%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Barcelona			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Celtic	3.4%	< 1%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	AEK	14%	< 1%	14%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bayern			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bueyueksehir			7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Gent	3.5%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Sparta Praha	5.0%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Standard	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Lech	3.8%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Razgrad	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CSKA Sofia	3.0%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Slovan Liberec	10%	< 1%	10%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	2.6%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Karabakh Agdam	1.8%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	6%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Rijeka	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Sivasspor	7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dundalk	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Zorya	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%