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Nineteen teams have clinched a spot in last 64. There are a couple of do-or-die matches:
In Group K, Wolfsberg host Feyernord. Feyernord need to win to snitch the last spot in that group.
In Group A, Young Boys and Cluj play a deciding match in Bern. Young Boys need to take a point.
In Group I Sivasspor and Tel Aviv play a deciding match. Sivasspor need to win to clinch a spot in the last 64.
In Group B, Rapid Wien need to beat Molde with 1-0 or with two goals; otherwise Molde take the second spot in Group B.
In Group F, three groups fight over two spots. Napoli host Sociedad and Rijeka host Alkmaar. Napoli clinch a spot if they at least draw or Rijeka take point against Alkmaar. Alkmaar clinch a spot if they win or if they draw and Sociedad lose. Sociedad clinch if they win or if they take at least as many points as Alkmaar.
| Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
| Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| J | Tottenham | 24% | 76% | 100% | 74% | 49% | 30% | 18% | 10% |
| B | Arsenal | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 74% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 9% |
| Atletico | 36% | 28% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 6% | |||
| G | Leicester | 19% | 81% | 100% | 69% | 41% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| Man United | 46% | 34% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 6% | |||
| C | Leverkusen | 32% | 68% | 100% | 67% | 40% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| H | Milan | 61% | 39% | 100% | 64% | 38% | 21% | 11% | 6% |
| I | Villarreal | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 69% | 40% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| RB Leipzig | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | |||
| A | Roma | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 36% | 18% | 8% | 3.8% |
| F | Napoli | 27% | 61% | 88% | 55% | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3.4% |
| L | Hoffenheim | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3.2% |
| Atalanta | 43% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3.2% | |||
| Real Madrid | 16% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | |||
| Salzburg | 62% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2.9% | |||
| E | Granada | 39% | 61% | 100% | 59% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2.9% |
| D | Benfica | 68% | 32% | 100% | 54% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2.6% |
| F | Sociedad | 30% | 29% | 59% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2.5% |
| Ajax | 57% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | |||
| Gladbach | 51% | 31% | 17% | 9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | |||
| H | Lille | 39% | 61% | 100% | 51% | 23% | 9% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Olympiakos | 91% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |||
| Shakhtar | 23% | 14% | 8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | < 1% | |||
| Inter | 11% | 7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | < 1% | |||
| D | Rangers | 32% | 68% | 100% | 47% | 18% | 7% | 2.1% | < 1% |
| E | PSV | 61% | 39% | 100% | 41% | 16% | 5% | 1.7% | < 1% |
| Brugge | 78% | 34% | 13% | 4.7% | 1.5% | < 1% | |||
| Lazio | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | < 1% | |||
| K | Dinamo Zagreb | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 45% | 15% | 4.4% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 78% | 31% | 10% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| G | Braga | 81% | 19% | 100% | 34% | 11% | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Paris SG | 1.4% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| C | Slavia Praha | 68% | 32% | 100% | 34% | 11% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| A | Young Boys | 75% | < 1% | 75% | 23% | 8% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| F | Alkmaar | 44% | 10% | 53% | 17% | 6% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| B | Rapid Wien | 42% | < 1% | 42% | 12% | 3.8% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Marseille | 9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| J | Antwerp | 76% | 24% | 100% | 26% | 7% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| FC Krasnodar | 100% | 28% | 6% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| I | M Tel Aviv | 84% | < 1% | 84% | 20% | 4.9% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| L | Crvena Zvezda | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 22% | 5% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | Feyenoord | 31% | < 1% | 31% | 8% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | Wolfsberg | 69% | < 1% | 69% | 16% | 3.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| A | CFR Cluj | 25% | < 1% | 25% | 7% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| B | Molde | 58% | < 1% | 58% | 12% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Ferencvaros | 22% | 6% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Lok Moskva | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| I | Sivasspor | 16% | < 1% | 16% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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