PL: Matchday 17

 

In 50% of the simulations the champions take 77-83 points; in 25% they take more and in 25% they take less.

In 50% of the simulations the 4th team take 66-70 points. 

In 50% of the simulations the 17th team take 35-39 points.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
29	Man City	76.6	+38	< 1%	99.71%	99.26%	98.2%	95.6%	43%
33	Liverpool	76.1	+40	< 1%	99.76%	99.34%	98.3%	95.6%	40%
33	Man United	71.1	+22	< 1%	97.0%	94%	88%	78%	11%
29	Tottenham	66.7	+26	< 1%	89%	81%	70%	52%	3.3%
32	Leicester	64.0	+15	< 1%	77%	65%	49%	31%	1.1%
26	Chelsea	61.6	+22	< 1%	66%	51%	35%	20%	< 1%
29	Everton	60.4	+7	< 1%	53%	39%	24%	13%	< 1%
29	Southampton	58.6	+7	< 1%	42%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%
23	Arsenal	55.5	+7	< 1%	23%	14%	7%	2.9%	< 1%
26	West Ham	54.9	+3	< 1%	20%	11%	6%	2.3%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	16%	9%	4.8%	2.0%	< 1%
22	Wolves	53.0	-3	< 1%	12%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%
23	Leeds	48.3	-9	< 1%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Crystal Palace	45.8	-16	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	45.2	-15	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	44.8	-16	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Brighton	37.5	-18	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Fulham	33.0	-27	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	24.8	-50	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Sheffield United	22.9	-35	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Sheffield United	41%	24%	35%	Newcastle
Wolves	49%	23%	28%	Everton
Burnley	31%	24%	45%	Man United
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Brighton
Aston Villa	35%	24%	41%	Tottenham
Arsenal	61%	20%	18%	Crystal Palace