PL: Three-horse race

The lague race has transformed into a three-horse race with Man United up in lead, but Man City and Liverpool are still favorites.

50% Confidence intervals

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
32	Man City	77.1	+36	< 1%	99.80%	99.43%	98.5%	96.2%	44%
33	Liverpool	76.1	+40	< 1%	99.75%	99.31%	98.2%	95.5%	38%
36	Man United	72.5	+22	< 1%	98.4%	96.4%	92%	84%	14%
30	Tottenham	65.4	+24	< 1%	85%	75%	60%	42%	1.7%
32	Leicester	64.0	+15	< 1%	77%	64%	48%	30%	< 1%
32	Everton	62.3	+9	< 1%	67%	51%	35%	19%	< 1%
26	Chelsea	61.6	+22	< 1%	66%	51%	35%	19%	< 1%
29	Southampton	58.6	+7	< 1%	42%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%
26	West Ham	54.9	+3	< 1%	20%	11%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
24	Arsenal	54.4	+6	< 1%	18%	10%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	16%	9%	4.7%	1.9%	< 1%
22	Wolves	51.3	-4	< 1%	7%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	48.3	-9	< 1%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	46.0	-15	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	43.9	-16	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	43.6	-17	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Brighton	37.1	-17	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Fulham	33.5	-25	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	24.8	-50	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	24.4	-35	97.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	71%	17%	12%	West Brom
Leeds	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Burnley
Fulham	23%	22%	54%	Chelsea
Leicester	53%	23%	24%	Southampton
Sheffield United	25%	23%	52%	Tottenham
Liverpool	60%	21%	19%	Man United
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Crystal Palace
Arsenal	61%	21%	19%	Newcastle
West Ham	68%	18%	14%	West Brom
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
Man City	74%	15%	10%	Aston Villa
Fulham	22%	22%	57%	Man United
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Burnley