PL: Man City more than 50% chance

Man City now win the league in more than 50% of the simulations.

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
35	Man City	77.7	+39	< 1%	99.83%	99.51%	98.6%	96.5%	51%
34	Liverpool	75.1	+39	< 1%	99.61%	98.9%	97.2%	93%	30%
37	Man United	72.7	+23	< 1%	98.5%	96.3%	92%	83%	14%
33	Tottenham	66.6	+26	< 1%	89%	79%	65%	46%	2.5%
35	Leicester	65.2	+16	< 1%	82%	69%	53%	34%	1.4%
29	Chelsea	62.8	+22	< 1%	72%	56%	38%	21%	< 1%
32	Everton	62.3	+9	< 1%	64%	48%	31%	17%	< 1%
29	Southampton	57.7	+6	< 1%	33%	19%	10%	4.2%	< 1%
29	West Ham	56.1	+3	< 1%	23%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%
27	Arsenal	55.4	+8	< 1%	20%	11%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	15%	8%	3.9%	1.6%	< 1%
22	Wolves	49.0	-7	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	46.5	-11	1.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	45.6	-17	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	43.1	-18	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	42.6	-17	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Brighton	39.1	-15	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Fulham	32.6	-25	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	West Brom	27.2	-48	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	23.4	-36	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	68%	18%	14%	West Brom
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
Man City	74%	15%	10%	Aston Villa
Fulham	22%	22%	57%	Man United
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Burnley
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle