PL: Predictions after match day 25

Predictions after match day 25

 

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
59	Man City	87.0	+52	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.11%
49	Man United	70.7	+27	< 1%	99.11%	97.3%	93%	85%	< 1%
49	Leicester	69.4	+21	< 1%	98.2%	95.0%	89%	77%	< 1%
40	Liverpool	66.8	+26	< 1%	95.6%	90%	79%	61%	< 1%
43	Chelsea	64.3	+21	< 1%	86%	74%	56%	36%	< 1%
45	West Ham	62.6	+9	< 1%	74%	56%	36%	20%	< 1%
40	Everton	60.0	+5	< 1%	50%	33%	18%	8%	< 1%
36	Tottenham	59.7	+17	< 1%	54%	35%	20%	9%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	55.4	+9	< 1%	20%	11%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%
34	Arsenal	55.0	+10	< 1%	17%	8%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%
35	Leeds	50.9	-4	< 1%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Wolves	50.4	-7	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Southampton	48.0	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Crystal Palace	47.1	-19	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Burnley	44.0	-15	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brighton	40.5	-12	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Newcastle	40.1	-22	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Fulham	33.1	-23	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	West Brom	25.1	-48	99.30%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Sheffield United	24.4	-34	99.16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	73%	16%	11%	West Ham
West Brom	36%	24%	39%	Brighton
Leeds	46%	24%	30%	Aston Villa
Newcastle	41%	24%	35%	Wolves
Leicester	48%	24%	28%	Arsenal
Crystal Palace	59%	21%	20%	Fulham
Tottenham	61%	20%	18%	Burnley
Chelsea	45%	24%	31%	Man United
Sheffield United	17%	20%	63%	Liverpool
Everton	50%	23%	27%	Southampton