PL: Last quarter of the season

Entering the last quarter of the season City have secured the title (99.9%). United have secured (97%) a CL ticket, with Leicester and Chelsea favourites to take the remaining two spots, but challenged by Tottenham (23%), Liverpool (20%), and West Ham (16%). EL and Europa Conference League very much depend on the outcome of the League Cup and the FA Cup. In the bottom Newcastle and Fulham fight over the last contract and a spot in PL next season. 

 

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
71	Man City	88.4	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.86%
57	Man United	73.6	+31	< 1%	99.95%	99.73%	99.00%	97.0%	< 1%
56	Leicester	69.2	+22	< 1%	99.0%	96.1%	90%	78%	< 1%
51	Chelsea	66.9	+25	< 1%	96.0%	89%	78%	60%	< 1%
46	Liverpool	63.3	+20	< 1%	81%	63%	41%	20%	< 1%
48	Tottenham	63.2	+24	< 1%	81%	63%	43%	23%	< 1%
49	West Ham	62.7	+12	< 1%	71%	50%	31%	16%	< 1%
46	Everton	60.0	+3	< 1%	41%	24%	12%	4.6%	< 1%
42	Arsenal	57.8	+13	< 1%	25%	12%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
41	Aston Villa	53.4	+7	< 1%	4.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Leeds	49.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Wolves	49.0	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Crystal Palace	46.0	-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Southampton	45.1	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Burnley	44.3	-17	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Brighton	40.9	-11	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Newcastle	37.4	-24	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Fulham	33.6	-21	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	West Brom	24.9	-47	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	23.0	-40	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	78%	14%	9%	West Brom
Leeds	58%	21%	20%	Sheffield United
Leicester	25%	23%	52%	Man City
Aston Villa	59%	21%	20%	Fulham
Southampton	49%	23%	28%	Burnley
Newcastle	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham
Arsenal	39%	24%	37%	Liverpool
Man United	72%	16%	12%	Brighton
Everton	58%	21%	21%	Crystal Palace
Wolves	47%	24%	29%	West Ham