PL: Predictions after matchday 26

City now have secured the title with  99.8% certainty. We have two teams in no man's land, with Leeds and Crystal Palace having a safe distance down to relegation and a hopeless gap up to top 7.

 

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
62	Man City	88.7	+53	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.77%
50	Man United	71.1	+28	< 1%	99.16%	97.7%	95%	89%	< 1%
49	Leicester	67.2	+18	< 1%	94%	87%	76%	61%	< 1%
43	Liverpool	66.1	+24	< 1%	92%	84%	72%	55%	< 1%
44	Chelsea	64.4	+22	< 1%	84%	72%	56%	38%	< 1%
45	West Ham	62.9	+11	< 1%	71%	54%	38%	23%	< 1%
43	Everton	61.4	+5	< 1%	56%	39%	25%	13%	< 1%
39	Tottenham	60.5	+20	< 1%	54%	37%	24%	13%	< 1%
37	Arsenal	57.1	+13	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	2.9%	< 1%
39	Aston Villa	57.1	+10	< 1%	24%	14%	8%	3.6%	< 1%
34	Wolves	50.8	-6	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Leeds	49.1	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Crystal Palace	45.8	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Southampton	45.6	-15	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Burnley	43.0	-19	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Newcastle	39.3	-23	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brighton	38.9	-13	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Fulham	34.2	-21	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	West Brom	27.2	-46	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Sheffield United	23.3	-35	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	76%	15%	10%	Wolves
Burnley	39%	24%	37%	Leicester
Sheffield United	36%	24%	39%	Aston Villa
Crystal Palace	27%	23%	49%	Man United
West Brom	29%	24%	48%	Everton
Fulham	29%	24%	48%	Tottenham
Liverpool	54%	22%	23%	Chelsea