Friday, May 7, 2021

PL: Newcastle almost certainly secured new contract

Mathematically Newcastle can still be relegated, but it would require three losses in the remaining matches and that Fulham win against Burnley, Southampton, Man United, and Newcastle in the final round.

Leicester are involved in the CL race again. They finish with three matches against top teams Man United (a) , Chelsea (a) and Tottenham (h), and they probably need 3 more points to clinch a CL spot.


Simulated points for winner: 87 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 67
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City88.7+52< 1%100%100%100%100%99.98%< 1%< 1%100%
67Man United76.9+34< 1%100%100%>99.99%99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
61Chelsea67.1+23< 1%99.78%97.0%90%75%< 1%< 1%15%84%
63Leicester66.3+19< 1%99.86%95%82%60%< 1%3.0%37%60%
58West Ham64.7+13< 1%95.5%81%58%31%< 1%15%50%31%
54Liverpool63.1+20< 1%91%64%39%19%< 1%26%46%19%
56Tottenham62.4+23< 1%88%56%30%14%< 1%32%43%14%
52Everton58.7+2< 1%20%7%2.2%< 1%< 1%16%7%< 1%
49Arsenal55.9+11< 1%3.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.7%< 1%< 1%
48Aston Villa53.6+8< 1%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.1%< 1%< 1%
47Leeds52.8-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
42Wolves46.8-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Crystal Palace43.7-24< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Southampton43.5-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36Burnley41.6-16< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton40.7-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham31.2-2299.43%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom29.3-3899.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United21.2-44100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Leeds40%24%36%Tottenham
Sheffield United40%24%35%Crystal Palace
Man City64%19%16%Chelsea
Liverpool71%17%12%Southampton
Wolves55%22%23%Brighton
Aston Villa26%23%51%Man United
West Ham51%23%26%Everton
Arsenal71%17%12%West Brom
Fulham39%24%37%Burnley
Southampton49%23%27%Crystal Palace
Man United63%20%18%Leicester
Chelsea55%22%23%Arsenal
Aston Villa43%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%19%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%22%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%20%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%20%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%22%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%18%82%< 1%6%54%40%
Chelsea win against Leicesterthey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%29%71%< 1%< 1%4%96%< 1%< 1%16%84%< 1%7%65%28%
Man United win against Leicesterthey win against ChelseaTottenham win against Leicesterthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%39%61%< 1%< 1%12%88%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%7%93%< 1%< 1%24%76%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%< 1%31%69%< 1%9%72%19%

Chelsea
Man City win CL
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%1%23%75%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
they win against Leicester
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







< 1%< 1%9%91%< 1%3%42%55%







they win against Arsenalthey win against Arsenal

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















< 1%< 1%1%99%< 1%< 1%19%80%< 1%< 1%27%72%< 1%5%60%34%
















West Ham
they win against Everton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%7%46%46%8%23%54%15%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%1%30%69%< 1%12%60%28%2%12%58%28%14%31%50%5%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%14%86%< 1%3%54%42%< 1%2%42%56%< 1%18%70%11%< 1%2%42%56%3%18%68%11%3%18%68%12%20%40%40%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%17%43%38%14%38%43%5%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Leeds
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%8%39%53%5%29%49%17%4%26%59%12%20%44%35%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Leedsthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%28%70%< 1%18%55%26%< 1%11%49%39%8%38%49%5%< 1%15%66%19%8%40%49%2%9%42%48%2%36%47%17%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3%16%49%32%13%35%44%8%
they win against West Bromthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%8%45%46%5%27%54%13%3%19%53%25%17%40%41%3%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Man Unitedthey win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%4%39%57%2%20%60%18%< 1%9%51%39%7%33%55%5%< 1%10%51%39%6%32%56%6%7%34%54%5%29%48%23%< 1%

Everton
they win against West Ham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
54%25%19%2%84%13%3%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
30%29%36%4%66%23%11%< 1%69%23%8%< 1%91%8%< 1%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
14%27%52%7%48%32%19%< 1%50%31%18%< 1%84%13%3%< 1%55%32%13%< 1%84%14%2%< 1%71%23%6%< 1%93%6%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Chelsea
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
83%14%3%< 1%98%2%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
70%23%7%< 1%93%7%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against BrightonChelsea win CLthey win against BrightonChelsea win CL
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
60%31%10%< 1%89%10%< 1%< 1%84%15%1%< 1%97%3%< 1%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
92%6%2%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Evertonthey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
84%12%4%< 1%97%2%< 1%< 1%97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelseathey win against Chelseathey win against Evertonthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
64%24%11%< 1%92%7%1%< 1%93%6%1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%93%6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Tottenham
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against Southamptonthey win against Southampton

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















92%7%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

























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