Saturday, May 8, 2021

PL: Chelsea almost clinch a CL spot

Chelsea almost clinch (>95%) a CL spot and Tottenham are almost out (<5%) of the race.

 

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City86.6+50< 1%100%100%100%100%99.90%< 1%< 1%100%
67Man United76.9+34< 1%100%100%>99.99%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
64Chelsea69.4+25< 1%>99.99%99.92%98.6%94%< 1%< 1%4.2%95.7%
63Leicester66.3+19< 1%99.88%96.0%83%56%< 1%2.3%42%56%
58West Ham64.7+13< 1%95.9%84%56%26%< 1%12%58%26%
57Liverpool63.8+20< 1%95.7%79%48%21%< 1%17%58%21%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%79%33%12%3.4%< 1%46%30%3.4%
52Everton58.7+2< 1%23%7%2.1%< 1%< 1%16%7%< 1%
49Arsenal55.9+11< 1%3.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.7%< 1%< 1%
50Leeds54.3+0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
48Aston Villa53.6+8< 1%2.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.0%< 1%< 1%
42Wolves46.8-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace45.4-22< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Southampton42.9-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36Burnley41.6-16< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton40.7-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham31.2-2299.42%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom29.3-3899.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Wolves55%22%23%Brighton
Aston Villa26%23%51%Man United
West Ham51%23%26%Everton
Arsenal71%17%12%West Brom
Fulham39%24%37%Burnley
Southampton49%23%27%Crystal Palace
Man United63%20%17%Leicester
Chelsea55%22%23%Arsenal
Aston Villa42%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%19%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%22%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%20%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%22%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%24%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Chelsea
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%9%90%
Arsenal win against ChelseaMan City win CL
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%14%86%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
Aston Villa win against Chelseathey win against Arsenalthey win against Arsenal
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







< 1%< 1%3%97%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%4%96%< 1%< 1%28%72%








Leicester
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%25%75%< 1%4%58%38%
Chelsea win against Leicesterthey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%38%62%< 1%< 1%9%91%< 1%< 1%23%77%< 1%6%67%27%
Man United win against Leicesterthey win against ChelseaMan United win against Leicesterthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%50%50%< 1%< 1%18%82%< 1%< 1%2%98%< 1%< 1%16%84%< 1%< 1%32%68%< 1%< 1%7%93%< 1%< 1%33%67%< 1%7%75%18%

West Ham
they win against Everton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%5%55%40%8%20%60%12%
they win against Brightonthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%35%65%< 1%8%67%25%2%10%66%22%13%28%55%3%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Bromthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%< 1%53%46%< 1%< 1%54%45%< 1%14%78%8%< 1%1%52%47%3%14%75%8%2%14%75%8%20%37%43%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%7%57%36%7%25%59%9%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%48%51%2%14%69%15%2%15%69%14%14%39%45%2%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%37%63%< 1%5%73%21%< 1%2%53%45%2%18%74%6%< 1%2%55%44%2%19%74%5%2%17%75%7%18%46%36%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
5%33%50%12%26%51%22%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%22%59%19%12%51%36%1%12%55%33%< 1%48%46%7%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%6%63%31%2%43%53%2%2%43%53%2%26%62%12%< 1%2%49%48%< 1%26%63%11%< 1%29%60%11%< 1%73%26%1%< 1%

Everton
they win against West Ham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
53%26%20%1%85%13%3%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
27%31%39%3%65%24%10%< 1%68%25%7%< 1%93%7%< 1%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
11%28%56%5%45%36%19%< 1%48%34%18%< 1%85%13%2%< 1%53%36%12%< 1%86%12%2%< 1%70%24%5%< 1%95%5%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Southampton
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







95%5%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against West BromWest Ham win against Everton

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















92%7%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
















Arsenal
they win against Chelsea
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
85%12%2%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
72%23%5%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against BrightonChelsea win against Arsenal
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
60%32%8%< 1%93%7%< 1%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
90%8%2%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Evertonthey win against Everton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
81%16%4%< 1%97%2%< 1%< 1%98%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelseathey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
59%32%10%< 1%90%9%< 1%< 1%92%7%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%










 

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