Sunday, May 9, 2021

PL: West falling behind in CL race

The CL race has become a two-horse race between Leicester (64%) and Liverpool (26%). Liverpool are chasing 6 points behind Leicester withfour matches left to play compared with Leicester's three. Liverpool take 6.8 point on average in the simulation, while Leicester only take 3.3 points.

Even if West Ham win the remaining three matches, they only have 56% chance on the CL spot. If Tottenham win the remaining three matches, they have a 44% chance.

 

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 67
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City86.6+50< 1%100%100%100%100%99.81%< 1%< 1%100%
70Man United78.1+35< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
64Chelsea69.4+25< 1%>99.99%99.95%99.36%95.6%< 1%< 1%2.9%97.1%
63Leicester66.3+19< 1%99.66%96.8%88%64%< 1%1.7%34%64%
57Liverpool63.8+20< 1%93%80%58%26%< 1%14%54%26%
58West Ham63.0+11< 1%88%65%33%8%< 1%22%57%8%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%68%37%15%4.8%< 1%32%32%4.8%
55Everton60.7+4< 1%47%20%7%1.1%< 1%26%20%1.1%
52Arsenal56.5+12< 1%4.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.6%< 1%< 1%
50Leeds54.4+0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
48Aston Villa52.6+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Wolves47.9-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace45.4-22< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Southampton42.9-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36Burnley41.6-16< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton39.8-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham31.2-2299.41%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom28.8-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Fulham39%24%37%Burnley
Southampton49%23%27%Crystal Palace
Man United63%20%17%Leicester
Chelsea55%22%23%Arsenal
Aston Villa42%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%18%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%23%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%21%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%20%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%21%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%46%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Chelsea
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%7%93%
Leicester win against Man Unitedthey win against Arsenal
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%1%99%< 1%< 1%13%86%
they win against Arsenal
Man United win against LiverpoolMan City win CL
YesNo

YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%1%99%







< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%2%98%< 1%< 1%20%79%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%

Leicester
Tottenham win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%6%58%35%< 1%< 1%24%76%
they win against ChelseaChelsea win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%21%79%< 1%8%68%23%< 1%< 1%35%65%< 1%< 1%9%91%
Man United win against Leicesterthey win against Man UnitedMan United win against Leicesterthey win against Tottenham
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%30%70%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%< 1%30%70%1%9%77%13%< 1%< 1%47%53%< 1%< 1%16%84%< 1%< 1%4%96%< 1%< 1%20%80%

West Ham
they win against West Brom
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3%12%68%17%20%31%48%2%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%61%37%4%19%73%4%4%18%73%5%30%38%32%< 1%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Southamptonthey win against Southamptonthey win against Southampton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%44%56%< 1%5%87%8%< 1%5%88%7%10%39%50%< 1%< 1%5%88%8%10%39%51%< 1%12%40%48%< 1%57%34%9%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%6%50%42%12%20%56%12%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%1%40%59%3%12%65%20%4%12%65%19%23%30%44%2%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%28%72%< 1%5%68%27%< 1%1%44%54%4%15%72%9%< 1%2%46%52%5%16%71%8%4%14%72%10%29%35%35%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
10%23%50%17%40%35%26%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%14%56%28%21%36%41%2%23%39%38%< 1%65%29%7%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villathey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%54%44%5%32%59%4%5%32%60%3%44%43%13%< 1%6%37%57%< 1%47%42%11%< 1%47%42%11%< 1%88%11%< 1%< 1%

Everton
they win against Aston Villa
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
28%31%38%3%66%24%10%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
11%28%56%5%46%35%18%< 1%48%34%17%< 1%85%12%2%< 1%
they win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%21%70%8%30%43%27%< 1%31%43%25%< 1%76%20%4%< 1%33%42%24%< 1%78%18%4%< 1%46%36%18%< 1%89%10%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Chelsea
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
84%13%4%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
66%25%9%< 1%96%3%< 1%< 1%98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







51%36%13%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%94%5%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%








Leeds
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Southampton
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against West Brom


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























95%5%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
























Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelseathey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
93%6%1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







80%17%3%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

















 

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)