Tuesday, May 11, 2021

PL: Chelsea and Leicester have almost clinched CL spots

Although Chelsea and Leicester have almost clinched CL spots, Liverpool still have a reasonable chance. They probably need to win their remaining three matches, which is sufficient in 76% of the simulations.

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City86.6+50< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
70Man United76.0+33< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
64Chelsea69.4+25< 1%>99.99%99.95%99.27%94%< 1%< 1%3.8%96.1%
66Leicester68.5+21< 1%100%>99.99%99.45%90%< 1%< 1%10%90%
57Liverpool63.8+20< 1%93%79%54%13%< 1%14%66%13%
58West Ham63.0+11< 1%88%65%29%2.5%< 1%23%63%2.5%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%68%36%12%< 1%< 1%32%36%< 1%
55Everton60.7+4< 1%47%20%6%< 1%< 1%27%20%< 1%
52Arsenal56.5+12< 1%4.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.7%< 1%< 1%
50Leeds54.4+0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
48Aston Villa52.6+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Wolves47.9-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace44.4-23< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Southampton44.2-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Burnley43.3-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton39.8-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham29.8-25100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom28.7-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Chelsea55%22%23%Arsenal
Aston Villa43%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%18%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%23%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%21%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%21%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%46%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
Tottenham win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%24%76%< 1%< 1%4%96%
Chelsea win against LeicesterLiverpool win against Man United
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%37%63%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%< 1%14%86%< 1%< 1%1%99%
Liverpool win against BurnleyMan United win against LiverpoolLiverpool win against Burnleythey win against Tottenham
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%57%43%< 1%< 1%20%80%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%14%86%< 1%< 1%27%73%< 1%< 1%3%97%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%4%96%

Chelsea
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%8%92%
Liverpool win against Man UnitedMan City win CL
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%2%98%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
they win against ArsenalArsenal win against Chelseathey win against Arsenal
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%4%96%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%3%97%< 1%< 1%25%75%








West Ham
they win against West Brom
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3%13%79%5%20%31%49%< 1%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Southampton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%4%87%9%7%27%67%< 1%7%27%65%< 1%39%36%25%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%77%23%< 1%6%93%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%11%39%50%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%11%40%49%< 1%10%38%52%< 1%57%34%9%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%6%69%23%12%20%64%4%
they win against Man Unitedthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%44%55%2%8%77%13%4%13%77%6%23%30%46%< 1%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Bromthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%24%76%< 1%2%72%26%< 1%2%76%22%5%16%79%< 1%< 1%2%73%25%5%17%78%< 1%12%30%57%< 1%51%31%18%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
17%32%51%< 1%51%32%17%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
4%27%68%< 1%35%40%25%< 1%20%38%42%< 1%63%30%7%< 1%
they win against Leicesterthey win against Leicesterthey win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%3%93%3%6%36%58%< 1%5%34%60%< 1%47%42%11%< 1%6%34%60%< 1%44%43%13%< 1%47%42%11%< 1%88%11%< 1%< 1%

Everton
they win against Aston Villa
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
28%32%40%< 1%65%24%10%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
11%29%58%1%46%35%19%< 1%48%35%18%< 1%85%13%2%< 1%
they win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2%22%74%2%30%43%27%< 1%31%43%26%< 1%75%20%4%< 1%33%43%24%< 1%78%18%4%< 1%47%36%17%< 1%89%10%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Chelsea
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
83%13%4%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
66%25%9%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%97%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







51%36%14%< 1%93%6%< 1%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%








Leeds
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Southampton
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against West Brom


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























95%5%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
























Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelsea
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







93%6%1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against Evertonthey win against Crystal Palace

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















83%14%3%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

























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