Thursday, May 13, 2021

PL: Upset at the Bridge

Arsenal upsetting Chelsea at Stamford Bridge gives Liverpool some extra hope for Liverpool (18%). They can reach 69 points if they win their remaining four matches, which will probably suffice. The coming match between Chelsea and Leicester is of course crucial. It also gives Arsenal some (17%) hope for continental play next season. If they win their remaining two matches they have 49% probability to reach Europe.

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City86.6+50< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
70Man United76.0+33< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
66Leicester68.5+21< 1%100%>99.99%99.46%91%< 1%< 1%9%91%
64Chelsea67.6+23< 1%>99.99%99.81%97.6%86%< 1%< 1%9%90%
57Liverpool63.8+20< 1%92%78%55%18%< 1%13%61%18%
58West Ham63.0+11< 1%85%64%30%4.1%< 1%21%60%4.1%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%65%36%12%1.1%< 1%29%36%1.1%
55Everton60.7+4< 1%43%19%6%< 1%< 1%24%20%< 1%
55Arsenal58.6+13< 1%15%3.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%13%3.9%< 1%
50Leeds54.4+0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
48Aston Villa52.6+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Wolves47.9-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace44.4-23< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Southampton44.2-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Burnley43.3-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton39.8-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham29.8-25100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom28.7-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Aston Villa43%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%18%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%23%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton52%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%21%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%22%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%1.2%98.8%< 1%< 1%16%84%
Liverpool win against Man UnitedChelsea win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%4.8%95.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%26%74%< 1%< 1%2.3%97.7%
Liverpool win against Burnley
Liverpool win against Man UnitedChelsea win against Aston Villa
YesNo

YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%11%89%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%







< 1%< 1%54%46%< 1%< 1%18%82%< 1%< 1%5.0%95.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.98%

Chelsea
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%1.6%98.4%< 1%< 1%20%80%
Man United win against Liverpoolthey win CL
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%3.4%96.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%30%69%

they win against Aston Villa
they win against Aston Villa


YesNo

YesNo








NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL








< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%6%94%







< 1%< 1%7%93%< 1%< 1%50%49%

West Ham
they win against West Brom
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3.4%12%76%9%24%27%48%< 1%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Southampton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%3.7%82%14%8%25%66%< 1%9%26%64%< 1%46%30%23%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%65%35%< 1%6%92%1.4%< 1%5%92%2.0%13%37%50%< 1%< 1%6%92%1.6%15%38%48%< 1%13%37%51%< 1%67%26%7%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
1.7%6%61%31%14%19%61%6%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%1.5%53%45%4.0%12%73%11%4.2%13%73%11%27%28%45%< 1%
they win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%2.0%65%33%< 1%1.6%60%38%5%15%77%2.6%< 1%1.7%62%36%6%16%76%2.5%4.6%14%78%3.3%33%32%34%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
18%30%50%1.9%55%28%17%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
4.2%26%67%3.2%40%35%25%< 1%22%35%42%< 1%68%25%7%< 1%
they win against Leicesterthey win against Leicesterthey win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2.9%86%11%6%35%59%< 1%5%34%61%< 1%53%36%11%< 1%5%34%61%< 1%49%38%13%< 1%53%36%11%< 1%92%8%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Crystal Palace
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
66%25%9%< 1%96.3%3.5%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
51%36%13%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%94%5%< 1%< 1%99.81%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Tottenham win against WolvesEverton win against WolvesCrystal Palace win against ArsenalEverton win against Sheffield United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
61%30%8%< 1%36%43%20%< 1%96.7%3.1%< 1%< 1%90%9%< 1%< 1%97.2%2.6%< 1%< 1%90%9%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Everton
they win against Aston Villa
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
30%29%40%1.3%68%21%10%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolves
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
12%27%58%2.3%49%32%19%< 1%51%31%18%< 1%87%10%2.4%< 1%
they win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
1.9%21%73%3.5%32%40%28%< 1%34%40%26%< 1%79%16%4.6%< 1%36%39%25%< 1%81%15%3.8%< 1%49%34%17%< 1%92%8%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Southampton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Burnley
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







97.5%2.3%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against West Brom


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























95.9%3.8%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%
























Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
98.0%1.7%< 1%< 1%99.96%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palace
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







94%4.8%1.1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against Chelseathey win against Chelsea

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















82%14%4%< 1%99.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%98.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%

























Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)