Thursday, May 13, 2021

PL: Liverpool in the CL race

Liverpool are in the CL race after beating Man United. If they win their three remaining matches they are very likely (99.8%) to clinch a CL spot. Only way they can miss then is if Chelsea win their remaining matches and Leicester win against Tottenham. And as that would make Leicester and Liverpool both finish 69p, Leicester would need to win big to catch up on the goal difference. Leicester have clinched the spot if they win against Chelsea. Chelsea have a lifeline in that if they lose against Leicester, they can get a spot in CL by winning this year's final.

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City86.6+50< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
70Man United74.2+30< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
66Leicester68.5+21< 1%100%100%99.0%80%< 1%< 1%20%80%
64Chelsea67.6+23< 1%>99.99%99.73%96.2%73%< 1%< 1%17%82%
60Liverpool65.9+23< 1%99.09%95.3%82%43%< 1%3.7%53%43%
58West Ham63.0+11< 1%85%61%16%2.7%< 1%23%60%2.7%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%65%31%6%< 1%< 1%33%34%< 1%
56Everton60.4+4< 1%37%11%1.1%< 1%< 1%27%13%< 1%
55Arsenal58.7+13< 1%13%2.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%12%3.1%< 1%
50Leeds54.3+0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Aston Villa52.1+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Wolves47.9-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace44.4-23< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Southampton44.2-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Burnley43.3-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.9-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton39.8-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham29.8-25100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom28.8-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Newcastle17%19%64%Man City
Burnley48%23%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%18%15%Sheffield United
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%21%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%21%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
Chelsea win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%32%68%< 1%< 1%3.6%96.4%
they win against TottenhamChelsea win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%8%92%< 1%< 1%54%46%< 1%< 1%8%92%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.97%
Liverpool win against BurnleyLiverpool win against Burnleythey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNoYesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







< 1%< 1%18%82%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%78%22%< 1%< 1%34%66%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%16%84%








Chelsea
they win CL
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%26%73%

they win against Leicester


YesNo








NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL








< 1%< 1%8%92%< 1%< 1%52%48%


Leicester win against Tottenhamthey win against Aston Villa




YesNoYesNo
















NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
















< 1%< 1%16%84%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%23%77%< 1%< 1%76%24%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%33%67%1.6%6%69%23%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%1.3%59%39%< 1%1.3%61%37%3.8%13%80%3.7%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%45%55%< 1%< 1%47%53%< 1%4.4%90%6%< 1%< 1%50%50%< 1%4.6%90%6%< 1%5%90%5%13%33%54%< 1%

West Ham
they win against West Brom
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3.3%14%77%6%23%30%47%< 1%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Southampton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%5%85%10%8%27%64%< 1%9%28%63%< 1%44%32%23%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%76%24%< 1%8%91%< 1%< 1%8%91%< 1%13%39%48%< 1%< 1%8%91%< 1%14%40%46%< 1%12%39%49%< 1%64%28%8%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
16%35%47%1.0%54%31%15%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2.8%32%63%1.7%37%40%22%< 1%21%41%38%< 1%67%27%6%< 1%
they win against Leicesterthey win against Leicesterthey win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%5%89%6%3.8%42%54%< 1%3.2%42%55%< 1%51%39%10%< 1%3.2%41%55%< 1%48%41%11%< 1%51%39%10%< 1%92%8%< 1%< 1%

Everton
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
41%38%22%< 1%80%16%3.7%< 1%
they win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
25%45%29%< 1%71%23%6%< 1%38%40%22%< 1%85%13%1.8%< 1%
Man City win against Evertonthey win against Man Citythey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
31%49%20%< 1%7%35%57%< 1%20%47%33%< 1%77%20%2.8%< 1%21%48%31%< 1%72%24%4%< 1%78%19%2.6%< 1%97.8%2.2%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Crystal Palace
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
69%24%7%< 1%96.1%3.7%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
55%34%10%< 1%93%6%< 1%< 1%94%5%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Everton win against WolvesEverton win against WolvesWolves win against EvertonChelsea win CL
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
69%25%6%< 1%40%44%16%< 1%96.9%2.9%< 1%< 1%89%10%< 1%< 1%88%11%< 1%< 1%96.1%3.6%< 1%< 1%99.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Southampton
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







97.2%2.6%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against West Brom


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























95.6%4.1%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%
























Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Crystal Palace
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







98.8%1.2%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against Chelsea


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























96%4%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%

































 

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