Saturday, May 15, 2021

PL: West Ham out of CL race.

West Ham are out of the CL race. Even if they win the last two matches, they have less than 2% chance to reach a CL spot.

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
83Man City87.5+50< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
70Man United74.2+30< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
66Leicester68.5+21< 1%100%100%100%81%< 1%< 1%19%81%
64Chelsea67.6+23< 1%>99.99%99.79%97.2%74%< 1%< 1%17%83%
60Liverpool65.9+23< 1%99.09%95.8%85%44%< 1%3.2%52%44%
59West Ham62.6+11< 1%86%58%10%< 1%< 1%27%60%< 1%
56Tottenham61.0+21< 1%66%35%7%< 1%< 1%30%37%< 1%
56Everton60.4+4< 1%36%10%1.1%< 1%< 1%27%12%< 1%
55Arsenal58.6+13< 1%12%1.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%12%2.7%< 1%
53Leeds56.3+5< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Aston Villa52.1+6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Wolves47.9-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
43Southampton45.3-17< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace44.4-23< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Newcastle42.2-17< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Burnley41.6-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Brighton39.4-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham28.9-26100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom28.8-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United19.8-46100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%18%15%Sheffield United
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton52%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%20%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%22%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%4.8%95.2%< 1%< 1%33%67%
Liverpool win against BurnleyChelsea win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%11%89%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%52%48%< 1%< 1%7%93%
Chelsea win against Aston Villa
Liverpool win against West BromChelsea win against Aston Villa
YesNo

YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%23%77%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%







< 1%< 1%71%29%< 1%< 1%25%75%< 1%< 1%15%85%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%

Chelsea
they win CL
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%26%74%

they win against Leicester


YesNo








NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL








< 1%< 1%8%92%< 1%< 1%50%49%


Leicester win against Tottenhamthey win against Aston Villa




YesNoYesNo
















NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
















< 1%< 1%16%84%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%23%77%< 1%< 1%73%26%

Liverpool
they win against West Brom
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%38%61%2.1%7%70%21%
they win against Burnleythey win against Burnley
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%12%88%< 1%< 1%60%39%< 1%< 1%58%41%3.8%12%80%4.0%
they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%43%57%< 1%< 1%48%52%< 1%3.4%91%6%< 1%< 1%46%54%< 1%3.2%90%7%< 1%3.8%91%6%13%32%55%< 1%

West Ham
they win against Southampton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
1.8%22%76%< 1%29%35%36%< 1%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%6%92%1.8%3.3%35%62%< 1%2.9%33%64%< 1%51%36%13%< 1%
Tottenham win against LeicesterTottenham win against LeicesterTottenham win against LeicesterEverton win against Wolves
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%21%78%1.3%< 1%< 1%98.0%1.9%6%61%33%< 1%2.2%25%73%< 1%5%59%35%< 1%1.9%23%75%< 1%65%27%7%< 1%36%45%19%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
16%31%52%1.1%54%29%16%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Leicester
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
2.5%26%69%1.8%37%38%25%< 1%21%37%43%< 1%67%26%6%< 1%
they win against Leicesterthey win against Leicesterthey win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%93%7%3.5%37%60%< 1%2.5%33%64%< 1%50%39%10%< 1%2.8%34%63%< 1%48%42%11%< 1%51%39%10%< 1%93%7%< 1%< 1%

Everton
they win against Wolves
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
42%37%20%< 1%81%15%3.6%< 1%
they win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
27%45%28%< 1%73%22%6%< 1%39%39%22%< 1%86%12%1.6%< 1%
Man City win against Evertonthey win against Man Citythey win against Sheffield Unitedthey win against Sheffield United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
33%49%18%< 1%7%34%58%< 1%20%47%32%< 1%79%19%2.6%< 1%23%47%30%< 1%73%23%4%< 1%80%18%2.4%< 1%98.3%1.7%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win against Crystal Palace
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
71%23%6%< 1%96.6%3.2%< 1%< 1%
they win against Brightonthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
58%33%9%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%95%4.8%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%
West Ham win against SouthamptonEverton win against WolvesCrystal Palace win against ArsenalEverton win against Sheffield United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
68%29%3.0%< 1%42%40%19%< 1%97.4%2.5%< 1%< 1%90%9%< 1%< 1%97.9%2.0%< 1%< 1%91%9%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Southampton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
97.1%2.7%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against West Brom
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







95.4%4.3%< 1%< 1%99.89%< 1%< 1%< 1%







Wolves win against EvertonArsenal win against Brighton

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















90%9%< 1%< 1%97.2%2.6%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%
















Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelsea
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







99.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against Crystal Palace


YesNo





NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL























97%3%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%

































 

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