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Belgium need a point against Finland to secure the group win.
| Group B | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| Belgium | 2 | 5 | - | 1 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 93% | 100% | 74% | 51% | 33% | 21% |
| Finland | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | 3 | 13% | 69% | 11% | 7% | 52% | 12% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Denmark | 2 | 1 | - | 3 | 0 | 26% | 16% | 57% | < 1% | 72% | 43% | 23% | 11% | 5% |
| Russia | 2 | 1 | - | 3 | 3 | 61% | 15% | 24% | < 1% | 31% | 10% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% |
Russia clinch a spot in R16 if they take a point against Denmark unless Finland beat Belgium in which case it's a bit more complicated (see table below)
| Russia - Denmark | ||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 100% | 99.7% | 9% | 29% | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Fin - Bel | ||
| 100% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 26% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 26% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 11% | 37% | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 33% | Away | |
Finland clinch a spot with a win against Belgium. A draw will also make it if Denmark beat Russia ; if they don't Finland have with 4 points extremely good chances as a third team. If Finland lose, they still have fairly good chances as third team, unless Denmark beat Russia with one goal and not 1-0. See table below for details.
| Finland - Belgium | ||||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 0-4 | |||
| 100% | 99.89% | 64% | 66% | 71% | 46% | 48% | 28% | 32% | 14% | Rus - Den | ||
| 100% | 99.6% | 74% | 75% | 80% | 54% | 55% | 34% | 38% | 18% | 57% | Home | |
| 100% | 99.6% | 73% | 75% | 82% | 54% | 56% | 34% | 37% | 18% | 58% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 73% | 87% | 100% | 53% | 56% | 17% | 36% | < 1% | 54% | 0-1 | |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | 1-2 | |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | 2-3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 74% | 75% | 80% | 53% | 56% | 34% | 36% | 18% | 58% | -2 | |
| 100% | 100% | 73% | 75% | 81% | 53% | 56% | 33% | 37% | 17% | 57% | -3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 74% | 75% | 80% | 53% | 56% | 32% | 37% | 18% | 57% | -4 | |
Denmark need to win against Russia. If they win and score two goals at the same time as Belgium beat Finland, they are through to the next round.
| Russia - Denmark | ||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 93% | 96.0% | 97.2% | 98.6% | 98.9% | 99.1% | Fin - Bel | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | 75% | 81% | 86% | 93% | 95% | 95% | 66% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 76% | 81% | 87% | 93% | 95% | 96% | 67% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 97.4% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 73% | Away | |
Netherlands have won the Group C and are likely to face Czechia, Slovakia or Germany in the knockout stage.
| Group C | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| Netherlands | 2 | 5 | - | 2 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 64% | 35% | 15% | 6% |
| Ukraine | 2 | 4 | - | 4 | 3 | < 1% | 31% | 69% | < 1% | 94% | 29% | 8% | 3% | < 1% |
| Austria | 2 | 3 | - | 3 | 3 | < 1% | 69% | 31% | < 1% | 90% | 22% | 6% | 1% | < 1% |
| North Macedonia | 2 | 2 | - | 5 | 0 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Ukraine need a draw to clinch the second spot. If they lose, it depends on their goal difference whether they can advance as a third team.
| Ukraine - Austria | ||||||||
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 100% | 100% | 92% | 79% | 62% | 37% | Nor - Net | ||
| 100% | 100% | 92% | 79% | 59% | 35% | 94% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 92% | 79% | 62% | 36% | 94% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 92% | 79% | 62% | 37% | 94% | Away | |
Austria have need to win to clinch the second place, but have extremely good chances to advance as third team if they draw. If they lose, it depends on how much.
| Ukraine - Austria | ||||||||||||
| +4 | 3-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Draw | Away | |||
| 35% | 56% | 62% | 74% | 78% | 89% | 91% | 92% | 99.97% | 100% | Nor - Net | ||
| 34% | 57% | 63% | 75% | 77% | 89% | 91% | 92% | >99.99% | 100% | 90% | Home | |
| 34% | 56% | 61% | 74% | 79% | 89% | 91% | 93% | 99.98% | 100% | 90% | Draw | |
| 35% | 56% | 62% | 74% | 78% | 89% | 91% | 92% | 99.97% | 100% | 90% | Away | |
Here's the updated bracket
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Belgium (93%) | ||||||||
Belgium (68%) Germany (8%) | ||||||||
Germany (24%) Portugal (15%) Slovakia (13%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Belgium (47%) Italy (28%) Ukraine (5%) | ||||||||
Italy (85%) | ||||||||
Italy (63%) Ukraine (21%) Wales (8%) | ||||||||
Ukraine (69%) Austria (31%) | ||||||||
Belgium (30%) France (19%) Italy (15%) Portugal (12%) | ||||||||
France (54%) Portugal (38%) | ||||||||
France (42%) Portugal (28%) Switzerland (7%) | ||||||||
Austria (25%) Switzerland (22%) Finland (20%) Ukraine (11%) | ||||||||
France (32%) Portugal (20%) Spain (9%) Sweden (7%) | ||||||||
Czechia (45%) Croatia (36%) England (15%) | ||||||||
Sweden (24%) Czechia (19%) Croatia (18%) Spain (17%) | ||||||||
Sweden (45%) Slovakia (25%) Spain (23%) | ||||||||
Belgium (21%) France (18%) Spain (12%) Portugal (11%) England (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (67%) Sweden (18%) | ||||||||
Spain (51%) Sweden (10%) Austria (10%) | ||||||||
Austria (34%) Ukraine (15%) Finland (14%) Czechia (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (28%) England (21%) France (15%) Portugal (13%) | ||||||||
England (82%) Czechia (14%) | ||||||||
England (37%) France (22%) Portugal (22%) Germany (13%) | ||||||||
Portugal (35%) France (34%) Germany (28%) | ||||||||
Spain (18%) Netherlands (15%) England (14%) France (11%) Portugal (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (100%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (64%) Germany (7%) | ||||||||
Czechia (16%) Slovakia (15%) Germany (14%) Croatia (13%) Portugal (9%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (35%) Denmark (20%) Wales (13%) Italy (6%) | ||||||||
Wales (76%) Italy (15%) | ||||||||
Denmark (35%) Wales (34%) Italy (9%) | ||||||||
Denmark (57%) Russia (24%) Finland (11%) |
The chances to advance as third team are still good with 3 points. Currently one needs to have 4-7 in goal difference to have greater than 50% chance.
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 3 | 4-5 | 4.5% | 4.0% | 90% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 86% |
| 3 | 2-3 | 2.8% | 2.2% | 78% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 75% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.5% | 2.4% | 69% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 2.3% | 1.3% | 59% |
| 3 | 1-3 | 1.8% | < 1% | 54% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 55% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 47% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 3.9% | 1.4% | 36% |
| 3 | 1-4 | 1.9% | < 1% | 34% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 1.9% | < 1% | 24% |
| 3 | 2-6 | 2.5% | < 1% | 18% |
| 3 | 1-5 | 2.2% | < 1% | 15% |
| 3 | -5 | 2.9% | < 1% | 12% |
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